Friday, March 27, 2009

Headed Up

Here is the five minute bar chart for the e-minis. My range estimate is the blue rectangle extending from 812 to 835.

This morning I was a little concerned that the market was about to break out from this rectangle on the downside. The bar highlighted by the red arrows broke out of the first 30 minutes trading range to the downside and the entire day thus far could easily be a downside breakout below the low associated with the dashed red line.

In the event the bar that concerned me now looks more like a climax bar than a breakout bar. When the market moved back above the dashed red line this presumption became strong so I went long one unit. If I am reading things correctly we have seen the day's low.


Anonymous said...

Selling volume near 820s thru 815 could see 800 later today. FWIW

Anonymous said...

I agree with your general analysis.

However, subsequent market looks choppy to me with poor internals...Hard to be excited about a long.

Anonymous said...

Carl, your 40-50 drop scenario is looking more and more likely.

I, too, am expecting a big sell off in the afternoon.