Monday, March 30, 2009

Guesstimates on March 30, 2009

June S&P  E-mini Futures: At this morning’s low of 789.50 the e-minis have already dropped about 40 points from Thursday’s high. I think today’s range will be about 20-25 points with a low near 775. I think this is just a normal reaction in an uptrend. It may last as much as 7-10 calendar days and drop the market to the 750 level. When it is complete I expect the e-minis to begin a move to 900.

QQQ: The 29.00 level is support and I think the Q’s are headed for 35.00.  

June Bonds: I don’t think the longer term bearish picture has changed. Resistance above the market is 132-16. Next downside target is 115.  

June 10 Year Notes: I think a bear market in the notes is underway. Resistance above the market is at 125-20.  Next downside target is 118.

Euro-US Dollar: The reaction in the euro should end near 131.00. I still think that the euro is headed for the 141.00 level.

Dollar-Yen: Then yen is headed for the 104.00 level.    

May Crude: I think May crude is on its way to the 58.00 level.  

GLD – June Gold: I think the market is headed below 700. Resistance above the market is at 955. A close above the 960 level will flip me back to the bullish column and mean that a move to 1100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: Silver is still holding 1240 support but I think this level will soon be broken.  If it is the market will be on its way below 800.

Google: I think that its drop from 747 is over. Support is at 290. Next upside target is 410. 


Anonymous said...

good luck Mr. eternal bull!

you missed the biggest bear market in our lifetime because:

1. you are a perma-bull
2. it is unpatriotic of you to be bearish're afraid to go bear as that would make you less of an American
4. all of the above?

PM said...

Hi Carl,

Once again this morning prices came down to test last Monday's breakout point of 787.20, according to my model. I would find it encouraging if we now moved higher from here. I added my third long position here at 787.50 in this pull back. I am now long three positions averaged at 794.50.

My model is long and anticipating higher levels.


Kindest regards,