Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Torrow's range

Here is a five minute bar chart of today's e-mini trading. My earlier suspicion that the day's high had been made proved wrong. While today was a low volume up day, I think the market has to go still higher to find enough sellers to produce a reaction of as much as 40-50 points.

My revised range estimate for today which I showed you when the market first hit 762 is the blue rectangle. The green rectangle is my current estimate for tomorrow's range. I think it will be about as big as today's. Its high should be near 783 and its low near 758 which is also the midpoint of today's range (red dashed line). The Federal Reserve announcement is due at 2:15 pm tomorrow but while it will produce a little more volatility when it comes out I don't think it will end up affecting the market's trend at all.


Anonymous said...

might want to update it--its already closed at 778--so 790 looks like the new top..

Carl Futia said...

Of course you realize that the estimate is for the June e-minis, not the cash S&P or the March e-minis.

No change is necessary.

Anonymous said...

market always sells after FED meeting Carl. i have entered sell orders already, S&P: 790, dow: 7450

Anonymous said...

What would change your mind about an up day tomorrow. Recent fed meetings have shown very little action before the 2:15pm announcement... and then whammo ... big move either way.

PM said...

Hi Carl,

This is the beginning of the new bull market. Many would say we didn't have the capitulation phase of the bear market yet, but I believe we did. When the market broke below the 2002 lows, there was selling on heavy volume down to the lower level buy zone as posted to you on 3/08/2009 10:57:00 AM. We then had an equally heavy volume rally back up above that breakdown point. That was the capitulation phase. The bear market is over.

I'm still holding my long from March 715.00 which I posted to you on 3/12/2009 07:41:00 AM; I rolled into June yesterday. I expect to see much higher levels before this year is out. My upper level sell zone is at 968.80, give or take a few ticks, although I would expect to see the market eventually move higher than that over time.

We should not see prices move below 720ish on any pull back, but more realistically, I think 750ish should hold presuming we even get down that low. There are lots of shorts trapped in this market, so I would think any dip could be shallow.


Kindest regards,