Thursday, February 11, 2010

Early Update

The ES has already dropped 6 points below the low of my range estimate of 1064-1082. My new range estimate for today is 1045-64.


Nick said...

The sell the news award goes to... GREECE!

This thing needs to break yesterdays lows to really get moving to the downside.

Kishore said...

Thank you, Carl, for increasing my confidence in the retest of 1056, low from yesterday, and, hopefully, all the way down to the retest of 1041. Most probably, as you say, it will turn around before 1041.

jeff said...

this market has hit ice and is about to sink if we break below 1055.

in my mind, that means wave iii of III has started and will be very powerful to the downside.

jeff said...

remember folks.

unless you've been living under a rock, a drop in oil and euro means a strong dollar. and a strong dollar is bad for equities.

i agree with carl's assessment for oil's next big move to be down and equities will follow.

jeff said...

this market is like a yo-yo.

you're revised top has already been taken out just 15 minutes after your latest projection.

i continue to watch for a breakdown below 1055, which will confirm the main trend down is continuing.

personally, i'm still looking for one more new high into the 1080 range before we put in another shor-term top.

just too many intermediate term indicators that say 'the Top' is in.

after hitting 1080 or so, i think we start our descent towards the 1000 mark and probably a bit lower.

jeff said...

still watching the action. the bollinger bands on the 15 and 30 minute charts are getting tigher and tighter. once this breaks up or down outside the bands, the move will be powerful. kind of like popping a pimple.

for now, doing nothing, but you know which way i'm leaning. just need some confirmation as there is no need to the first out my bunker. let someone else play hero!

PortlockTrader said...

Can someone refresh my memory where Carl came up with 1200 as his upside target?

Thanks and good trading!

PM said...


Don't be fooled by the recent inverse relationship between the dollar and equities. There has been as many times in history when there was a positive correlation. The current inverse correlation should not automatically be presumed as natural law anywhere.

Also, regarding crude oil. That market has been so beaten down that it has become everyone's favorite bear market. If there is a global economic recovery, then crude oil will begin to firm. Production has already been cut down to the bone and it will take time to get supply back into the pipeline. Don't forget, both China and India have a huge emerging middle class and solid emerging markets. Their consumption of crude oil will be at a record pace soon enough. Additionally, the OPEC nations anticipate their benchmark price for crude this year to be around $85 bbl. This leaves ample upside room for growth in this market. Remember, the best time to buy any market is when no one else wants it, and the dollar is an excellent example of this. Presuming the recovery does kick into play, and I expect it will, then those newly bought dollars will most likely find a home in U.S. equities.

Best wishes,


Win said...

Thanks, Carl, for the very helpful update. I got stopped out of my longs.

Kishore said...

The market is very good at dashing hopes!

The upside breakout is big surprise.