Tuesday, February 02, 2010

Guesstimates on February 2, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's early morning rally has made the move up from Friday's low the biggest rally since the top at 1148 three weeks ago. This makes it likely that the 1066 low ended the correction. Today's range estimate is 1076-1093. I expect a move to 1200 to develop over the next two or three months.

QQQ: This corrective phase should be followed by a rally to 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 144.00. Support is at 137.50. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

March Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00.

GLD – April Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1170. Any strength above that level would mean that the market is instead headed for 1250.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 19.40.

Google: The next significant move should take GOOG above 700.


Win said...

I sold my Qs and part of my SLV calls from last Friday. I will reload at lower levels. The manufacturing report was positive.

Kishore said...

ES = 1098 would be 0.382 retracement and 1107.25 would be 0.5 retracement.

But then, are we in a new motive waveup? In that case, retracement does not mean anything and the up move will just continue.

Should we expect a retest of 1066?

Carl, are we in retracement or a new motive up move?

speculaterus said...

ARMS Index has been running too high during last few days of decline for a bottom. Likely looking at a W bottom with a slightly lower low yet to come after current bounce runs out of steam.

George Rahal said...

I believe the current rally can go as high as 1100, but then I see a final wave down to 1050ish by Friday, before the up-trend resumes.

speculaterus said...

When I say the ARMS index has been too high, I mean too overbought which is actually a low ARMS result.

Unknown said...

A wave up is almost complete. Expecting a B retracment over the next couple days to the 1085 level before Wave C up to the 1113 level around Tuesday of next week. By then, the short-term oversold indicators will be again overbought and we will start a stronger Wave III down(compared to the one we just saw).

For now, it is a trader's market

As for oil, I think this move up is a simply a corrective phase that won't last long before we resume to the downside. I concur with Carl that the next big move in oil is down.

If you compare the S&P and oil, you will continue to notice that tend to trade in tandom. I expect this relationship to continue in the future.