Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Guesstimates on February 17, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1088-1102. I think the ES has decisively broken out above its recent 1058-1080 trading range. The market will reach 1200 over the next three months.

QQQ: A rally to 50.00 is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: This market is now headed for support near 131.00. Resistance above the market is at 141.00. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

March Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00.

GLD – April Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance is at 1120.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 17.00.

Google: The next significant move should take GOOG above 700.

29 comments:

ga said...

Jeff, SPX got over 1100 already...do you want to wait til the ES gets there or just send me a copy of Carl's book?

GA

George said...

I, too, would like a copy. This rally won't pause much for the next 7 trading days.

khoekz said...

Jeff,

I'll take one too. It will be good to have another copy sitting around for my students to take home and read.

Thanks in advance.

dcatlowpj said...

HA! Good for you, GA..I want my copy as well.

dcatlowpj said...

Ok, I already have a copy, Just kidding.

dcatlowpj said...

Very narrow range today. Hard to trade this...there may be a breakout, but which direction - - who knows!

Tronic said...

I bought the book today due to respect to Carl. Thank you!

Win said...

Jeff,
Could I have a copy? I will send you my mailing address if you like.

JS said...

Strange. Jeff and Tippy are not commenting. Guess they're busy covering their shorts. Whoops.

janet said...

Market was up almost 200 yesterday, today is expected to pause..

curt said...

you guys love piling on...must be nice to never be wrong

George said...

ES has sold off 7.25 pts since hitting 1100 pre-market. That may be enough of a "reaction" that now the market can continue higher.

I think today will remain uninspiring. I expect a another big up move tomorrow.

Kishore said...

Not a single worthwhile comment!

TA.Stockman said...

So what are all the comments here saying? We're in a new uptrend? If so, I dare all the "bull" commenters on this board to go 100% long as a position trade.

Until we get past 1030 (declining weekly trendline), you people are full of it...thinking you are smarter than Jeff or Tipsy. (Psst...a little hint...no one knows 100%, so keep your sarcasm to yourself.)

On the Daily, yes, it is currently bullish...we may even get a little higher. BUT this move in no way negates the Elliottician's take that this could be wave 2. How high? Anyone's guess, but like I said, it's 2 until we break whatever EWT's use as their marker.

Personally, we are only in a sideways move from 1150 - 1045 until 1150 is broken.

George said...

T.A. i've was 100% in cash until Friday the 5th, and went in 85% long. I am still holding. I posted in this blog the day i went long.

Kishore, you're comment has not added either.

Kishore said...

The current move up from ES at 1041 has all of the characteristics of a retracement. In fact, ES has only been making a giant bear flag.

The next big move is going to be down, in line with the first move down from 1147.

The high volume on the down leg and low volume on the up leg, of the current straight up short-covering fake rally, confirms that the next major move will be down.

Win said...

Hi, TA. No sarcasm at all. And in my opinion, as you can see on my blog and from my comments here, the only clearly defined trend is short bonds, long TNX. I just want a free copy of Carl's book. Jeff said he would give five free copies and asked for names of people, so I'm raising my hand.

fiz said...

Need to fill tuesday mornings gap..

jeff said...

I echo TA Stockman's comments that before piling into the long or short side that you look for some sort of confirmation a longer-term trend in in place. As it stands, I'll use any break below 1083 as confirmation that down is in the cards and 1110 that up (~61.8% retracement between 1150-1044) in in the cards. All of this other actitivy in between is just noise from my perspective, but have been using Carl's 60 minute channel charts to let me know where we stand on a very, very short-term basis. Right now, we're obviously much closer to the upper end of the channel. It's the reason why we're not seeing much move up.

For the short-run, I'm looking for a little more retracement before we climb up to the 1110 range. If we surpass this area, I may be inclined to add a little more to the long side.

Whatever side of the fence you're trading on, I continue to think being nimble is the key while also defining your stops when you know you're wrong.

Bill said...

I see a lot of people here saying you can not know the market direction. Others saying that Jeff and Tippy may be wrong this time but everybody is wrong at some point or another.

Let this be made abundantly clear. You can know the market direction with 100% certainty. The market goes up, period. Being a bear equals being a fool. Bears can get lucky and make money, but they are still fools, and will end up wiping out their trading capital always.

The reason being is that stock markets go up on aversge 7% or 8 % per year. An analysis since stock exchanges started will prove this. Stocks outperform bonds and inflation. So why would anybody bet against the stock market? Some of the best traders in the world have said that they rather sit out a bear market, than make money on it. It is that difficult to make money on a bear market that it's better not to trade. All the odds are against the bears when stocks go up 8% per year on average.

Enough said.

ga said...

So did the ES make it to 1100? I'm up for the free book simply because Jeff offered it if we saw 1100 before 1000. Not piling on by any means.

Personally I agree with the bears that this is just a wave 2 up of some sort...probably heading to the 1110-1112 area basis SPX. And then the deluge?

Any move over the 2/2 highs could be a big bull trap; the Dow made a higher high but not yet in the SPX. Looks to me like the market may need one more push down up to complete the wave up off the lows.

Meanwhile I watch and wait because I am trying to understand Carl's tech rationale for his bullishness.

AdrianD said...

i think spx 1100 provides a very good shorting opportunity for a move to about 1060 in the next week. stops can be set very close, above 1105, to 1110 for example, so one would know very fast if he is wrong or not and can also enter with increased size.

then we can have our rally up to new highs.

tooearly said...

Carl
why would gold and spx diverge this way (spx up gold down)?
and what are your thoughts if gold takes out that 1120?

roguewave said...

I don't know why everyone is so focused of what Jeff says and does. In my analysis he lacks any serious consideration as he steals from other webs and passes on as his own thinking. In addition he announces so called "positions" much after the fact with no followup ..cover or SAR and you will notice today he is claiming adding to longs when recently he had said I just went short and will add if we get where we are now yet somehow he is long and adding to longs? Very typical chat bloog crapola. Carl posts his trades and follows every one up. That is untypical. This can be learned from. Grandstanding has zero value except for the ego stuffer!For this blog to get better the grandstanding needs to stop. Carl is not your broker. He does not need to know yada yada yesterday or last week.

Nick said...

I'm still short here. I put my first stop in at 1105 and last at 1150. I think it is likely we go back and test the 20 and 100 daily MA (down) before meeting the 50 (up). If 1105 breaks to the upside I think there will be a slew of short coverings.

I find the blog banter entertaining. For a couple of weeks now Jeff has been very vocal in saying S&P 1000 is "immanent". We still may see it but in my eyes a quick HaHa is justified from the bulls.

Bill,
How can you say "Being a bear equals being a fool" after last years bomb? On a ten year chart I see the S&P sitting over 1500. The fools are in the lead.

Carl,
Congrats on the trade yesterday! You have been very patient with this market.

Cheers!
Nick

TA.Stockman said...

Anyone saying that the current price action = a new trend is WRONG.

What is a trend?
UP = higher high, higher low
DOWN = lower high, lower low

If 1150 was the latest high, then we ARE NOT in an uptrend until 1150 gets taken out.

From my standpoint, until then, (intermediate to long-term) we're either in a developing, widening down channel (a lower high can still develop), -OR- we're in a potential rectangle/double-top scenario.

Yes, George, you can play the swings in between (your 85% long on 2/5), but I'll bet doughnuts to dollars that you'll be dumping those longs if there's a whisper of impending implosion in the market (a break of 1050)? Just like Jeff said and Carl does, we play what the market gives us...we develop entry and exit strategies.

Win said...

Carl,

I posted here that I expected a ST top between 1095 and 1105 on the ES. I still believe that we're at a ST top and will see at least 1080 before any more higher.

Redwinger said...

Hi everyone. I am new here, but this ain't new.

Everyone has an opinion and everyone is wrong; everyone is right. It's all a matter of timing.

about 10 days ago I put in a long trade trigger which got filled as I knew it would but not as I expected. Yeah, it got filled alright, when the market SMASHED through my buy order and I was many thousands underwater in no time. Had I closed it, I was wrong.

The position is still open, and now I am up as much as I was down...so I am right -right?

I am no genius, tomorrow I may wake up and be BURIED BAD but who knows? NOBODY. Iran might strike Israel. Obama might strike Iran. Snoop Dog might strike some ho.

So what I would like to see is simple personal respect, cuz no matter what day it is, you may be the windshield...or the bug. And if you think you know which, get ready to go to school.

roguewave said...

Redwinger

Winning from poor discipline is not "right". You can often get away with it...so much so you end up counting on it...You then will get caught by Mother Market with your tweeds around yer ankles one day. That may be in the future but in the meantime when you look in the mirror you know deep inside you are only a lucky fool trading without rules and stops and this does great damage to your self-esteem and confidence as you know you have lost control in the markets when you rely on luck to deal her hand for you. Good luck and don't give up yer day job till you can honestly describe yourself as a disciplined trader instead of a lucky fool!