Thursday, February 11, 2010

Guesstimates on February 11, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: I am going to bet on an upside breakout today. My range estimate is 1064-1082. If I am wrong and the market spends an hour below 1064 I will conclude that the ES is headed for 1045 before a sustained rally can start. I still expect the 1041 low to hold and think that a move to 1200 is underway.

QQQ: A rally to 50.00 has begun.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: This market is now headed for support near 131.00. Resistance above the market is at 141.00. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

March Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00.

GLD – April Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1120.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 17.00.

Google: The next significant move should take GOOG above 700.


PM said...

Good Morning Carl,

On 2/08/2010 12:43:00 PM I submitted the following:

"We have three good chances for a confirmed buy signal this week, they are as follows:

1) IF on Friday February 12th we close above 1053.60,

2) or close above 1038.40 on Monday February 15th,

3) or close above 1022.10 on Wednesday February 17th,

Any of these conditions would confirm a new buy signal. Right now, we only have to wait it out and watch."

Well, we could be a day early and we could see a confirmed buy signal today. For a confirmed buy signal today we would need to see a close above 1072.40, which just coincidentally happens to be yesterday's high.


Kindest regards,


dcatlowpj said...

PM: I am also looking at longer-term charts. I pulled up a DAY chart today and I see ALL of the previous lows put in before our intermediate high of 1148 or so punched through to the downside.

It is not giving me much hope of a sustained hold above these support levels.

One of the keys I look for are volume pops to the upside...recently I saw OBV volumes (short) of over 900K contracts...that was unreal..before this past weekend, they held those shorts it appeared possible that a short-covering rally might occur.

At this point, my OBV is off and I am looking at pure Price Action and these support levels. Carl's 1041 level is absolutely the one to watch, if we penetrate yesterday's low of 1056.25. This is my target area for going long should it hold. I will be looking for a VOLUME POP before we hit this low.