Friday, February 05, 2010

Long one unit at 1047.25

23 comments:

kcounty said...

THAT is sticking to your guns!!

Jack said...

U got balls of steel Carl!

Go for it!

Jack

BullandBearWise said...

Catching a falling knife? Rock on, bro!

Kishore said...

Carl, the market has bad breath.

jeff said...

presto!

i'm joining you for a long rental over the weekend.

Tippy said...

Wow, would like to see you stops when you post your trades...

George said...

I agree with Carl and am long myself. I posted yesterday or the day before that i though 1045 would be the bottom. i went long in that area. I think Carl has discouraged posting specific trades on his comments section.

pimaCanyon said...

Kishore,

That is why Carl smokes cigars!

pimaCanyon said...

Wow, 29 comments on Carl's last post. I believe Carl has noticed a correlation between number of comments and market bottoms. We will see whether that pans out today.

Narayana said...

Nice, people aren't even too bearish in these comments, otherwise they'd be mocking Carl. Good sign for further drops!

Tippy said...

kcount, that isn't sticking to your guns. That's just refusing to admit when you are probably wrong in your analysis and simply going down with the ship out of stubbornness...

I don't get it, why are you guys fighting the trend here? Especially the guy holding over the weekend. Major risk out there this weekend. I'm not saying the trade won't work out for you guys, but wow, you are taking a huge unnecessary risk here...

George said...

Nar, if birds were chirping, you'd read that as a contrary indicator.

(will understand if this comment is moderator rejected)

Urban said...

Very strong move.

F&H Painting said...

Carl's in the plus. I'm going to buy that book about boxes. Box theory, who would have thunk of it.

khoekz said...

"Tippy",

Regardless of if we jump here or not to end the day above or below 1050, Monday will most likely be green. Even in these last few bearish weeks, Monday still prints strongly up. Its a gamble that I know I will take.

Your wordage is similar to everyone when the market hit 1150 a few weeks ago:- 'wow, I bet we hit 1200 in a week or two!!' - except, you are the opposite.

I just went long in all my accounts, most of which have been inactive sitting in MM accounts since 1135. You have to remember, we may have endured a lot of technical damage, but nothing on the SP charts has been broken.

Do you get it yet?

Nice call Carl, as usual, I agree.

As always, good luck to all.

spycharter said...

I'm with you Carl. We just closed the gap on SPY from 11/5/2009 at 104.9. Next support is at 104, but I'm willing to ride it out. Going up!!

waw4 said...

P.S. - Not too much headwind to go long if the adv/dec ratio is a negative 4 or 5 to 1?

jeff said...

since Monday's have been up over 80% of the time since the March lows, I'm not expecting anything different this time.

However, I will take off this long exposure from wave ii retracement up around Monday's close and start to rebuild short positions in anticipation of a much stronger wave iii within a larger Wave III down that should start around/late mid-week.

I think the next move down will be strongest one yet.

Tippy said...

Good luck khoetz and to the rest of you guys. I was hoping this was going to be a site where there was some good trading discussion, but it looks like I've simply stepped into a den of crazy bulls who can't seem to appreciate when their analysis might be incorrect.

As for the long trade by Carl being a 'good call', I disagree. It's a horrible risk/reward situation, no matter how the trade eventually turns out. That thing ran 7 points against him from the entry. Where were the stops? Are you guys really letting daytrades run that far against you in that area of a chart? There was the risk that it could have collapsed totally and bit you for 15 ES points. Just way too much risk for such a tiny reward. You guys have the 'bottom picking' disease.

Well, at least senses were reached and the trade was cut breakeven.

Kishore said...

With 1.25 hours to go before market close, I see a short term up trend of 1/2 an hour so to go. But the market should close at its low, because of poor ADV/DECL of 1:4, and a stinking breath in general. Moreover, in this market, why bother carrying a position, long or short, over the weekend. 1020 or so is appears to be in the cards before a market turnaround probably next week.

Incidentally, though I missed most of the sudden decline from the top at 1150, I did reasonably good short term trading. Short-term trading has its own virtues and less dependence on large trends for regular gains.

Happy weekend to all!

waw4 said...

NYSE adv/dec now down to neg 3:1 & price above Carl's lower box level.

waw4 said...

NYSE adv/dec now down to a neg 2:1. Carl you were just a bar early!

fiz509 said...

That sure looks like a bottom volume and candle wise...but what do I know