Wednesday, February 03, 2010

Guesstimates on February 3, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: I think Friday's 1066 low ended the drop from 1148. Today's range estimate is 1087-1100. I expect a move to 1200 to develop over the next two or three months.

QQQ: A rally to 50.00 has begun.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 144.00. Support is at 137.50. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

March Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00.

GLD – April Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1170. Any strength above that level would mean that the market is instead headed for 1250.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 19.40.

Google: The next significant move should take GOOG above 700.


PM said...

Good Morning Carl,

A close today above 1104.00 will give me a confirmed buy signal.


Kindest regards,


jeff said...

Wave B down has begun

this should terminate in the 1083-1090 area in the day or so

after that, Wave C will take us into the 1113-1120 by around tuesday next week

After that, we either climb hard or fall hard

only the pretenteders are 100% sure

the key is to stay committed to your approach and define your risk if proved wrong

Nick said...

Thanks for adding PM. Where is your sell signal? 1087? I think jobs report on friday could mix things up.

Kishore said...

jeff, I am not sure A is over yet. It may have more up to go. Do you consider time as a factor in determining whether or not a wave is complete?

But today does have a bearish bias, based on market internals.

Kishore said...

jeff, do you play wave Bs? They are called "terrible Bs" for a good reason. But when wave B down is complete, I 'd definitely like to play the wave C up.

As per Carl, your wave C up may even be a powerful motive wave up. It will depend on how deep down the "wave B" goes.

In fact, I am open to the possibility that even the first impulsive wave down from the high may not be over yet. We need to be thinking as many "what ifs" as possible.

Kishore said...

jeff, the problem with Elliott wave counts is that our brains go faster then the market, so we may be counting faster than the market can comply?

Dave Narby said...

I'll ask again: Carl, where do you see the money coming from for the market to rise to 1200?

I don't see it anywhere, but maybe I missed some.

Kishore said...

A plethora of Elliott wave counts on the internet reminds of a joke about a Papa Bear, Mama Bear and a Baby Bear.

As the Bear family crossed a fence, the Baby Bear said, “We all four have crossed the fence?”.

Was the Mama Bear pregnant?

No, the Baby Bear did not know how to count!

TA.Stockman said...

The Elliott Wave counts are nice, but I rarely see conclusive ones prospectively.

Usually, it's "...wave x has ended due to today's action." Well, that's helpful after I have lost 20% of my gains to know that the wave has finally ended.

As I have said before, nice to see retrospectively and say "yeah, I see that count now."