Thursday, February 25, 2010

Guesstimates on February 25, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: The ES has given back all of yesterday's rally plus a little more. My best guess is that the low at 1090.25 will be taken out briefly. I see support near 1086. I am going to estimate today's day session range as 1086-1100. The market will reach 1200 over the next three months.

QQQ: A rally to 50.00 is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: This market is now headed for support near 131.00. Resistance above the market is at 141.00. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

April Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00.

GLD – April Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance is at 1120.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 17.00.

Google: The next significant move should take GOOG above 700.

8 comments:

Aarpenn said...

Carl,

Are you still holding one of your long positions?

Aarpenn

Nick said...

Carl,
The 20 sma on a daily is at 1086.6 which should show some support like you said. I'm looking for stronger support at 1075 (if we get there). I'm still short here and slightly red.
Cheers!
Nick

Kishore said...

ES touched 1084 which was 50% retracement of the wave 3 rally from 1056 to 1111.

khalid said...

Catherine,
It's great to see you comment again.
You are one of the very few people with comments worth reading on this blog. And I've been visiting this blog sporadically over 3 years.

Kishore said...

Anyone who claims to be a smart trader, rich and with a big heart, can be confirmed only if he/she maintanis a blog, as Carl does, AND has earned an impeccable reputation for integrity, as Carl has.

Otherwise, personal claims, just like unjustified predictions, are dime a dozen.

pimaCanyon said...

Kishore,

A couple of days ago you posted a comment stating you wouldn't be posting here anymore. And now here you are posting again. What's up with that?

Kishore said...

pimaCanyon, doing social service!

TAE said...

I think there is a mindset where people doing anything want to make it really complicated, instead of trying to distill as much simplicity from it as it will bear. Its ego, and making it about one's greater knowledge trumps the real goal, which is monetary gain.

Carl is not the first person I have met who connects the dots and formulates a more simple approach, although he is the first I have found doing it in market analysis. The fact that he blogs it is not ego, as has been pointed out.

By concentrating on simple truths, like the market mostly goes up, leads to better tactics, like its better to find times to be long, and avoid shorting since there is an added built-in risk.

The person who first related this idea for me said "If you can't explain it in one sentence - it will never work." Carl's basic approach can be summed up that way.

Carl's results speak to the value of such an approach.