Real Time e-mini S&P Trading, plus contrarian commentary on all the markets, all the time
Carl, you often talk about the rhythm of the market. I posted a chart and analysis for why this market's rhythm has clearly shifted, to the bear side. http://themarketbrothers.blogspot.comEvery rally before this one took 8-10 days to make new highs. Now we're on day 13 and not even close to new highs (see chart on that link).
Looks like a clear 5 wave down to today's intraday lows to Carl's noted 1093 level. We either hold here and climb or fall hard.
I am watching the Dow which has been fluctuating between its recent high of 10725.43 and its 2002 low of 7286. And I ask, why in the face of all the "good news" hasn't the Dow been able to rise above 10725 again? Today, almost every advisory is busy recommending stocks to buy. I bring up charts of these recommendations, and in almost every case the stocks have broken below their 50-day moving averages. In fact, I have trouble finding stocks that have not already topped out. For instance, three supposedly "hot stocks," Goldman, Apple, and Exxon. All three have broken down. Based on their charts, I wouldn't buy them. Why? What is the market trying to tell us? The Dow is below its January 19 high, and it's "spinning its wheels." As for me, I'm on the sidelines, just watching the show (this does not apply to gold or gold shares).
1093 is holding on by a string. Regardless, I find it so interesting that one day of losses can wipe out 4-5 days of gains. Let's see if the bottom support line can keep the uptrend going. I'll be convinced we climb higher if we are able to recapture the 1100ish level.
Admittedly, this is a good place for a low-risk, long trade on the S&P as any meaningful break below today's intraday low would stop one out. I personally wouldn't get long unless we exceed the 1102 range. I don't need EW, but iIf that happens, I'll go long for a short-term rental(to offset my existing short trade) as I suspect 1120 will be in the cards. With the wonderful Consumer Confidence news out this morning, I'm not counting on it though.Carl doesn't discuss it, but the bottom of the NDX 60 minute trend line has been taken out to the downside.
Will the channel for ES between 1090.25 and 1094 break to the downside or the upside?The above should be simple to predict for some of the big shot predictors on this forum?Predict this right or call yourself a liar!
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