Friday, February 12, 2010

Guesstimates on February 12, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: The ES didn't spend much time yesterday above its last top at 1077 and then broke to 1066 this morning. This kind of action is generally short term bearish. Because I think 1041 will hold I am going to give the market the benefit of the doubt and estimate today's day session range as 1065-1080. Weakness below 1065 will mean a drop to 1045 is likely. Remember that Monday is a bank holiday in the U.S. and there will be no pit trading that day.

QQQ: A rally to 50.00 has begun.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: This market is now headed for support near 131.00. Resistance above the market is at 141.00. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

March Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00.

GLD – April Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1120.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 17.00.

Google: The next significant move should take GOOG above 700.

17 comments:

jeff said...

if we break 1060, wave iii down is confirmed in my mind.

hope everyone kept those stops tight as i suggested.

i think the market will be below 950 in the next month.

and what a shocker, equities down, oil down, the euro down, and the dollar up.

Harry said...

Why would oil be headed to $50? The EIA on Wednesday estimated that oil would average around $81 for this year.

dcatlowpj said...

I see that support level at 59.75..already broke 61.25

ga said...

jeff--

Carl is way bullish with his view that the market is headed back to 1200. you disagree....so I am curious, why are you here? Seems you wouldn't be bothered with a different view from yours.

khoekz said...

It seems that the 1060-1070 (cash SP) range is acting like a safe haven or a magnet for the SP. We have gone above and below this range, but overall it advances or retracts to stay in the range.

I do think that 1060 is key, the bulls need to hold it. If we can't hold it and the volume is on the heavy side, I will likely switch sides and go short. Either way, I really don't expect 1040 to be broken.

However, with the news from Greece and China, if we hold this level and end the day sideways or up, it will be very bullish for the coming weeks.

Good luck to all as we continue our streak of interesting Fridays.

jeff said...

thus far, 1060 is holding, but the S&P has a short-term bear forming wedge.

i think we either tank here or make one more high around 1083 before the 'big dump' begins.

jeff said...

Again,

Continue to watch the strong correlation among equities, oil, the euro, and the dollar.

Carl, I fully subscribe to your oil thoughts and we we undoubtedly know, equities and oil have basically been trading hand in hand.

And folks, you don't need to believe me, simply look at the charts...SPX, USO, FXE, UUP

Nick said...

Jeff,
Don't put the cart before the horse. We have to break below 1045 first and then we will find support between 1030-1020. 1020 is the last line in the sand I can see before 1000.

Jeff and Khoekz,
Instead of making cash bets which neither of you will honor, how about: if we hit 1000 first Khoekz buys a copy of Carl's book and if we hit 1100 first Jeff purchases a copy. (I'm buying one either way so I can better understand this box method and support this site.) http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0470325070

Cheers!
Nick

Win said...

Carl,

I bought June TLT Puts just a few minutes ago. I plan to buy more.

khoekz said...

I already bought a copy (nice work Carl) - good suggestion though...

but how about if we break 1100 before we break 1000, Jeff can only post once a day?

Just joking Jeff, although, your posts are pretty redundant.

I am still holding my longs, at about a 2% loss. I will hold over the weekend if we hold these levels.

jeff said...

ga, i continue to share my views as there is always two sides to the market. but more importantly, i think i provide value as i share concepts to control risk when i know i'm wrong.

when and if the market gets above 1100, i will change my view to the long side. however, there is nothing technical to show me otherwise. like me and carl, this blog could get even better if everyone could try to learn how to fish instead of trying to catch the fish of the day. below are some examples why i think it's paramount for each person to use tools(i.e. Carl's blog), but more importantly, think on your own and stay with your convictions. Try these for example to show its importance:

1) Juy 22nd 2008 : "U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Tuesday that the U.S. banking system is sound and the long-term fundamentals of economy are strong"

You know what happened next do you ? The biggest banking crisis ever !

2) October 25th 2005 : "Ben S. Bernanke does not think the national housing boom is a bubble that is about to burst.."

You know what happened next do you ? The biggest housing bust in US history !

3) January 18th 2008 : "President Bush and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke have emphasized to world economic markets that the U.S. economy remains fundamentally resilient and concerns about a slowdown in growth could be ameliorated by a short-term stimulus package".

You know what happened next do you ? The biggest US recession since WW2 !

4) February 7th 2010 : "Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, appearing on ABC News, said he thinks the economy is back in growth mode and, "We're seeing some encouraging signs of healing" re)

Based upon what happened on items 1-3 above, you know what I think is likely to happen next.


Last, I recognize many don't follow or believe in Elliott Theory and are tired of me discussing it. Short-term, there are too many gyrations in the market to make it very useful, but on the intermedate term, I have found it to be a good barametor for the overall up or down trends.


To put my money where my mouth is, I will gladly buy 5 books from Carl if 1100 occurs before 1000.


Jeff

ga said...

jeff...
Thanks for your answer. I haven't been reading this site that long and Ias just trying to get a feel for your thinking and I did.
I don't know what will happen, if I did i would have ALL the money, but if/when we see 1100, send me one of those 5 books!! :)

Nick said...

Jeff,
Dude, you totally copy and pasted that info straight off of etfstocks.typepad.com

next time at least site your site.

Nick

Teich said...

Jeff:

In two of the three historical examples you cited [ 2) October 25th 2005 and 3) January 18th 2008 ], $SPX market went up by at least 150 points right after.

For example, from Jan 18, 2008 to May 2008, $SPX went up by approx. 180 points. Sure, the market then plunges in Sept 2008, but I am not sure how much capital one would need to endure a 180-point draw down.

Bill said...

The long term direction of the economy is up. The stock market follows the economy. The S&P 500 will hit 1200 before the end of June.

There will always be short term ups and downs which most of the time you can not be able to predict.

fiz said...

"i think the market will be below 950 in the next month"-jeff

I think Jeff is WRONG !

Benjamin Reid said...

Do you think the sovereign debt concerns are the only reason the Euro would continue to decline against the dollar? Benjamin Reid Lodmell