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Nice recovery, Carl!
the jury is still out at these levels. i think any trade above 1102 or so points to a new highs in the 1115-1120 range. any break below today's intraday lows points to the 1080ish level being tested. the market will show it's cards in the next day or so.
I was expecting you'd hold onto your blog trade (even though market did not quite bounce off 1093 and also spent a good two hours below it touching 1091).Interesting that you closed the trade, I wonder if you are now anticipating we correct a bit lower before resuming the ride up.On a sidenote, I used to find Carl's and a few others' comments in the comment section valuable earlier. Of late, specially with folks like Kishore, it has become too much of a chit-chattering noise. But if Carl lets those comments through and he's fine with it, I got no right to say anything more.Thanks.-PA
Agreed.P and Others - My views may prove to be right or wrong in the long-run, but nothing bothers me more than posts that show no support for a bullish or bearish case. One way to differenciate this site from others is to put some intellegent thoughts and perspectives together for everyone to share. Right now, I think the risk is definitely to the long-side for the reasons I conveyed earlier. Any break below 1090 or so and I will add to the short side. Any break above 1102 or so and I will put on a long trade. Why? Per EW count, we either at least finished Wave IV down of a larger Wave II retracementand Wave V will take us to new highs or Wave III down has started and we have much further to go down. Per Carl's charts, the bottom of the 60 minute trendline is around the 1093 level as I type. Any break below this would change the short-term landscape of the uptrend.
if we manage to break today's intraday low, i think a confirmed temporary top is in.if so, i think we trade down 1083, up to 1100 or so and then the real fun begins to the downside. i have no compelling reason to jump in right here and will wait until confirmation. after witnessing daily full STO rolling over, a rejection at the 50 DMA, and a ~61.8% retracement(still need to be confirmed i admit), i think bullish case is on thin ice.
Jeff, you started this morning by saying that wave III down has started. Many counter arguments had to given just to prove to you that such may not be the case.Just listening to the BS all day from the likes of Jeff is a full-time job.Carl, I will read your guesstimates in the morning but no more of wasting my time commenting on this forum.Carl, Thanks for everything!
hey, it will be a lot quieter without "its all a big conspiracy" Kishore and "its going down unless its going up" Jeff...amen for white noise
I enjoy reading Jeff's perspective...keep it coming Jeff and let's get rid of personal attacks. We are all here to succeed in the market. Personally, I'm not liking the market action at all.
Kishore,I do believe Wave III has started, but commonsense says to wait for confirmation before diving in.On that note, feel free to add 'any' value to your posts instead of the continued bashing.
I agree here with Kishore, and actually I am a bit perplexed why Jeff is allowed to post on this board. Let's take a quick look at Jeff's history here:1. He made guarantees that 1000 would be hit within a week of the market hitting 1080. He was, not surprisingly, proven wrong. 2. He accused others of being liars. 3. He has made bets and not paid up. He hasn't even referenced his bets. Hey JEFF! we broached 1100 (I thought that was extremely unlikely) - where's my book and where is Carl's sales credit?4. He gloats when he is right, and ignores his own asinine statements when wrong, which is most of the time. 5. He was caught plagiarizing and called out on it - and never made a response. In the world I live in, there are consequences. I don't mind the banter that occurs on this board, but Jeff is usually way out of line and doesn't deserve the privilege to post here - unless he addresses the above.As for trading, I am long UPRO (again) from 142.5 and 141.50 (full position) - I expect to see 1110 very soon.
The market is gasping as it sinks deeper into the "bear zone." Advances on the NYSE was 939, declines were 2113. Worse, down volume was 84% of up + down volume. Total NYSE volume rose on the declining market -- bearish. Of my Big Three, bonds were higher, Dollar Index was up (euro is weak) and April gold was down 9.90 to 1103.20. I believe gold is building a base with 1000 as support. The world is waiting to see whether Germany and France will bail out Greece. I'm doubtful that they will. Angela Merkel is one tough, conservative -- she'll do what's best for Germany. If they do bail Greece, Portugal and Spain will be waiting in line. Is the short position against the euro too big? Could be. I'll leave that to the FOREX traders. To trade the currencies, you need brass gonads.
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