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Wave III down has begun. For me, a break below 1083 will confirm so and that S&P 1000 here we come.
jeff, is it not only a retracement of the wave 3 up on 30 minute chart for ES?Incidentally, there are so many wave cycles, depending upon the time frame you are looking at. Please don't confuse us with your wildass "predictions".
The bulls are a stubborn lot. It will take a lot of inverted hammers to knock some sense into their heads.Apparently, the discount rate annoucement on Thursday was ignored by this "resilient" market.Let us see how the bulls cover an 11 point drop in Consumer Confidence with more BS!
Sorry Kishore, I don't find his comment or picture he is painting "wildass".I may not agree that this is necessarily the start of the wave down he thinks it is; We could have a couple of headfakes. The chart does look very toppy to me.I find it interesting how people tend to jump on people they may have an honest disagreement with, or even a simple misunderstanding. I didn't see you ask him to clarify his time frame.FYI Jeff, I never take the side of any cheerleader. I go where the market is going. There is no sense in fighting the market, the market is always right. If Jeff says down, and Carl says up...no cause for stamping someone as "wildass" just place your positions. "The best revenge is a happy life"
Kishore, I'm simply trading what I'm seeing. Notice how Wave II had an almost 61.8% retracement, got rejected at the 50 DMA(instead of bouncing off it and rising), the rise was on very small volume, and full Daily STO has now rolled over. I see nothing bullish here, but out of courtesy to what I want to see, my confirmation that we've started Wave III down will be penetration below the area I just mentioned. By EW math, Wave III should be at least the same as Wave I, which points to a minium target of 1010. If it's a typical 1.618 x Wave I down, then we will see 950 or so. It's no wonder Carl sold his long at a 6 point loss earlier when he too is seeking the bullish sky break down. I'll be curious to see what he has to say if we break below 1093. Again, I'm not staying married to my approach and I welcome everyone share his/her analysis to support the bullish claims..not just bashing Jeff because it goes against what you want to see.
Agreed Redwinger.The biggest benefit I see reading Carl's blog is he always defines his trades and is quick to modify his approach when Mr. Market changes its tune.Folks, read Carl's blog from yesterday. Though he is very bullish, he has clearly defined his bullish line in the sand...1093
Redwinger, please excuse my use of the word that you are objecting to. It is probably due to my limited vocabulary. However, every comment needs to be looked at in context with the overall history of comments from the participants on this forum.
It is indeed a 61.8% retracement from the low. But we also have a wave 3 up on 30 minute chart. At this point, it is not known whether we are only retracing on the 30 minute chart or starting a new wave down on a higher timeframe chart. A mere 50% retracemnt of the wave 3 up on 30 minute chart can take us down to 1083 with no damage done to the bulls.Also, I have often seen wave counts being revised from ABC to 123, and vice versa, which completely trasforms the Elliott Wave "prediction". Jumping the gun is a popular pass time for those who make predictions for boosting their ego.
Carl,The consumer confidence number was a shocker for me, but I have used the drop to go long PMs in my retirement account; I consider PMs a proxy for higher rates. I am still bullish equities and PMs in the medium-term. I will stop out if the dollar index crosses 81.
Jeff,The only thing that bothers me about your EW forecast is that every EWer (and there are LOTS of them these days) sees it. I also wonder what will be the impetus to drive the market to 900, and to your eventual target in the 400's.
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