Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Guesstimates on February 10, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: The ES is barely holding 1066 support as I write this after dropping as low as 1062.50 overnight. I can't offer a range estimate that I have any confidence in today. However, I still expect the 1041 low to hold and I think that a move to 1200 is underway.

QQQ: A rally to 50.00 has begun.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: This market is now headed for support near 131.00. Resistance above the market is at 141.00. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

March Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00.

GLD – April Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1120.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 17.00.

Google: The next significant move should take GOOG above 700.


dcatlowpj said...

Carl, this is a very good call on your part. I belong to a separate Group that uses Market Profile (or Volume Profile) that calls out Volume clusters for trading the ES, YM, and NQ...yesterday, for the very first time, they called for a long and short (these are signals that are often an hour earlier than the actual price touched for entry) on the VERY SAME CHART. This was unusual and they had it right...this market is very difficult to call right now...more difficult than usual.

You have gained my respect (more so) for this call today. Right on!

This is not just because I agree with you ;)

I also have had a hard time on my other trades...been looking at some options opportunities with my trading partner (RD, you know who you are)....he entered yesterday and I missed the window...he got his premium..time will tell. RD has more experience than I do and thus he did it and I was a wimp on that one....

Anyway, thanks for the updates here, Daily, Carl. It is appreciated by me.

Win said...

The Euro zone is working on a fix for Greece, and if it comes through it could be the catalyst for a sharp move to the upside. Market participants are aware of this and probably wary of shorting. I think there will be a floor under the market today (perhaps 1060), at least until we hear about Greece.

Tippy said...

Agreed dcat,

I'm taking a shot short here at 1068 hoping we don't move above that afternoon trading range from yesterday. Stopping it at 1073.

TA.Stockman said...

Stopped out of my long. This market is indecisive. Iran announcement causing jitters? (not to mention the deflation of the Euro?)

Nick said...

I saw someone put the daily range at S&P 1090-1041. hahaha. The action was really choppy yesterday and it is probably best to wait for a break out before adding to any positions. I hate waiting but not as much as I hate getting chopped up in a sideways market.
If anyone is interested here is a fun EW count video I saw on youtube this morning.


Tippy said...

Gotta love me some Bernanke. Covered the 1068 short at 1062. +6points.

Tippy said...

ahhhhhhh, my 1062 didn't get hit. Stopped a quarter short. Damn.

Tippy said...

Whew, got it that time.

Lesson for the day: Quit talking when you should be trading, LOL.

Anyone have any thoughts on the Bernanke info? Doesn't look like the market is too receptive so far.

Tippy said...

Wow, it's looking like we are going to test that 1041 today. If the EUR/JPY breaks down below 122, look out below.

Dow gave up the 10,000, SP500 couldn't bust the 1071 level, gold getting hurt, oil getting hurt, dollar up.

Everything is still working together in the intermarket picture.

Tippy said...

Something to take a look at: The 2yr-10y spread is down 35 right now and the curve is flattening pretty hard. 2yr up +.12, 10yr down -.23.

Maybe the market is interpreting approaching FED tightening? See how it plays out. The curve certainly isn't sending a positive equity signal right now.

Win said...

I will be looking to buy at the ES 1050 range. I got stopped out of my earlier long.

Nick said...

My lesson for the day is Book your profits while you got 'em and set closer target prices. I've entered two trades today that I watched move up and then stop out at break even.

Market Karma said...

Tippy,, the 2y/10y has been in the 280 bps region for some time.. Now post bernanke i see it is 277 bps. You sure you looking at the right thing on your screens?

Tippy said...

Thoughts on this situation: I looks like a selloff in the Bond Market might be in the making. Could we get a nice little pop here if that money flows into the equity market?

Such a scenario could produce a nice upmove, but it would likely end very abruptly when the equity market realizes that the increasing rates will choke off growth.

Interesting. Any thoughts on this situation?

Nick, you are absolutely right, lol. I had a 5 point stop, so I was trying to get at least 5 points of profit. Had my browser open and heard the bell and assumed it was my profit target getting hit, but it was another order! Doh!

Tippy said...


you got 3.653 and .872 right now? Or about 278.1? They chopped off about 35 so far today and I'm wondering if this thing hasn't peaked and might be on the way down - quickly. What are your thoughts on it?

Tippy said...

Man, I'd love to try a long side trade here at 1063, but just can't pull the trigger. Anyone else playing the long side this afternoon?

EUR/JPY managed to hold up pretty well after a triple bottom this morning, gold getting a little bounce. Even a little money coming out of the bond market and maybe finding it's way into stocks.

Tippy said...


Read back over my post and that should be 2781 not 278.1. Sorry.

Kishore said...

The market has completely rejected the overnight high of 1072 on ES and the overnight low of 1062 was breached to the downside.

Today's low so far has been 1056.

A retracement of 50% from 1056 is almost over. Market internals so far have been bearish.

I am looking for a retest of 1056.

Win said...

Potential inverse H and S on the EURUSD 15-minute. Neckline 1.3675. Invalid with a clear break below 1.3675.

Kishore said...

Program trading hits the market like thunderbolt ligtening, suddenly out of the blue. But, program trading hits again and again.

Program trading is a beast that can pay rich dividends or cause repetitive losses. The jolts provide us with ideal exit points but they also ensure that all stops are hit.

fiz said...

Welcome to the TIPPY TRADING BLOG sheesh

Kishore said...

Every thrust is being met with a counter thrust! This is a trader's paradise, but without stops or the stops have to be out of reach.

TA.Stockman said...

Crazy. Tried a short at 1060 with my signal, but got stopped out. I'm sure if I try to go long, I'll be stopped out as well!

Broker's paradise! Commissions galore!

I think that I will wait until this breaks one way or the other. Not to mention, I need to wait for trades to settle before more cash is available.

Win said...


I keep saying this, but the moves in TLT and TNX are telegraphing to me the course of the market. Other factors -- PMs bottoming, the dollar's recent top lead me to believe that we are getting ready for one more leg up. At this point, I think the dollar has reached a significant top. I am long the EURUSD from 1.373 with a stop at 1.3670. I have a buy order on TLT puts, which I hope will get filled tomorrow. If I don't get filled on TLT, I will go long SLV.

Market Karma said...

USD top underway. Watch USDCHF. Here is link to illustrate.

Aarpenn said...


I wish I didn't have to say this, but some of you guys are sending way too many comments. Please show some courtesy, there is work involved for Carl to proof-read and submit your comments. He has got other things to do. It's easy for you guys to setup your blogs. And judging from your comments, you guys are knowledgeable enough to start your own blogs.

PS:Carl, my apologies if I took too much liberty and spoke something wrong for you.