Friday, February 19, 2010

Guesstimates on February 19, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1093-1107. The market has shrugged off the hike in the US discount rate which was announced after yesterday's pit close. The market will reach 1200 over the next three months.

QQQ: A rally to 50.00 is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: This market is now headed for support near 131.00. Resistance above the market is at 141.00. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

March Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00.

GLD – April Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance is at 1120.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 17.00.

Google: The next significant move should take GOOG above 700.

13 comments:

Kishore said...

"After some gyrations in both the 2s10s and the dollar, both are trading at the levels hit post the Fed announcement. The one outlier, of course, is stocks, which are trading oblivious of not only the Fed announcement, but everything that is happening in bonds and FX. Does it mean volume is horrendous and a few algos have again hijacked the market? Yes it does. Welcome to OpEx insanity."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ust-curve-and-dollar-back-post-fed-announcement-levels-stocks-blissfully-pretend-nothing-hap


Carl, a hijacked market is not a bull market.

khoekz said...

Carl,

I love your box theory. But, It seems like we are pushing the outer bounds of it right now... Don't you think the market is pushing this a bit far? I'd like to go short, just to go against the flow. Right now I am 100% cash and planning on buying the dips - but they are not coming. My trading history has taught me this is usually the time to go short - for a 5-10 point swing. Thoughts or a chart?

Thanks

Chaya said...

Jeff - your silence is deafening!

George said...

Jeff, I am re-posting a comment i wrote last night in case you did not see it. I can't be accused of predicting the past.

"Jeff, I'm still willing to bet you one copy of carl's book that the market will make new highs by monday.

2/18/2010 09:28:00 PM"

Notice the time. The futures were down 12.50 when I wrote that, but my conviction of market strength remained. ...I only bring it up because a free copy of Carl's book would be great.

Kishore said...

My conviction of market hijacking remains!

Do we want to join the hijackers? There is not enough money in the world that could make me do that!

jeff said...

Folks,

Admittedly, I'm an enjoying the Jeff bashes! Despite the continued bullishness here, I am still not convinced by any means.

However, if you re-read my posts, I have been defining when I know I'm wrong and what my positions are.

I'll state again, I am a little short here, but mostly cash. I will not change this approach until one of two things happen.

1. We break above 1115-1120. In which case, I'll take my small short off and start to initiatate a long.
2. We break below 1085 or so, in which case I'll start to add more short tranches.

Until such time, everything in between in just little gyrations, which does bode well good for prudent trade set-ups.

Again, feel free to continue to bash my approach as it's 'contrarian' to Carl and the rest of the permabulls. But the great thing about this market is one can easily modify the approach once proven wrong. At this time, I see nothing more than a retracement on low volume.

Chaya or George or others, I'd love to ready 'any' fundamental or technical analysis that supports your conviction to the long side. Unless ofcourse, perhaps you're only ride the coattails of Carl?

Larry said...

As has been discussed previously, higher indexes and higher commodity prices are joined at the hip. How can you continue to project higher indexes (which seems to be occurring) and lower commodities (which are definitely rising)? Major disconnect here and commodities have long since blown through your resistance levels? Comments?

AdrianD said...

Jeff,

You're still forgetting to talk about those books. I am not trying to take any sides (i have been bearish myself), but this is unresolved business for you.

As about George, I can assure you that he is not following Carl trades at all! He often has different opinions.

George said...

Thanks for sticking up for me, Adrian.

P said...

I don't like to comment much on the blog even though I religiously read it day in and day out -- purely because I don't want Carl's valuable time spent reading and approving comments that are just chatter and don't contribute.

With Jeff and a bit with others too, this has largely what it has become of late -- chatter and beating on who's right and who's not. Perhaps we should all exercise restraint and take such discussion somewhere else and not take Carl's time here.

Having said that, Jeff, if you happen to follow Terry Laundry (that Carl has a link to as well), you'd notice Terry cited George's (George Rahal) T construction in his weekend report. That should tell you something that George is not just riding on Carl's prediction. Also George used to maintain a blog that he has since discontinued. (I, for one, wish he'd continue it again).

Thank you.
-PA (a loyal Carl and George Rahal reader)

Market Karma said...

STRONG multi-year trends emerge when cross asset correlations suddenly change. During the STOCK bull market of 1994 - 2000, the USD was strong (as was the US economy.. and my economists tell me the USD was strong as a consequence of the economy and not vice versa hehe but thats another debate). During the STOCK & COMMODITIES bull market of 2003 to 2007, the USD was weak (as financial innovation took place). So what now? Well all the big funds I speak to are still heavily positioned in the more recent weak USD = strong Stocks = strong commodities direction. And from my experience, when all the big funds (short to medium term hedge funds) have the same positions, you can be sure that it wont work well. Hence I would not be surprised to see strong stocks = strong USD = strong commodities or vice versa as the next market regime. Short term, the USD has indeed reached a MAJOR resistance/critical point at 81.0 DXY = 1.0800 USDCHF which could result in a short term USD sell off but if the USD rallies back through 81.0, it will be stronger than before (similar to an athlete being rejected at an obstacle such as 10 second barrier in the 100m race etc. but later surpassing this obstacle with more practice and therefore being stronger going forward). One last thing to consider with regard to FX. IS the demise of the EURO bearish for US equities? So far, the media says "yes" but if the EURO is going to disappear, then that means the Fed has one less worry in its battle to re-inflate. In other words, pre-Dec 2009, one major concern for the Fed was that its aggressive re-inflation policies would destroy the USD. But now that concern is gone as the EURO has taken center stage!

Win said...

Mk,
Excellent. I will respond on your site.

RBharol said...

Elliott waver Caldaro gave up! Thinks bear market ended in March 2009. Read his weekend update.