Tuesday, February 09, 2010

Guesstimates on February 9, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1058-1076. I expect Friday's 1041 low to hold. A move to 1200 is underway.

QQQ: A rally to 50.00 has begun.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: This market is now headed for support near 131.00. Resistance above the market is at 141.00. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

March Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00.

GLD – April Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1120.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 17.00.

Google: The next significant move should take GOOG above 700.


dcatlowpj said...

On Balance Vol as of right now is over 850K contracts...holding short.

Short covering may occur today and his Carl's high point. This is risky territory today. I see some resistance points above the current level, at pre-market, 9:12a EST.

I will look for longs for the time being. We are already at R1 Pivot Resistance, though, so have tight stops in (you scalpers).

George said...

Hi Carl. I sent you an email last night, I don't know if you got it. But the content was that: friday and monday closely resembled march 6th and march 9th. March 10th had a run away gap up and the the market closed near the high. I postulated the pattern may have continued today.

Tippy said...

I hate to be the only bear contrarian here out of all you bulls, but this market is weak. An hour in and we can barely get past Monday's high, and that's with the good Greece news.

Carl, just curious, when exactly is your prediction wrong? I guess I'm asking where is your 'analysis stop'? You keep posting this 'We're off to 1200' stuff, but the market isn't moving up and it isn't in an uptrend. I mean, I guess if you say it enough, eventually, like a broken clock, you'll be right. But this market is sick right now. I guess my question is, at what point/level will you finally have to admit reality and change your forecast?

I'll assume that if we close at the low today, then the 'off to 1200' wasn't right again today?

I'm certainly not trying to be a jerk here, but maybe the boxes aren't working so well now that the big bull run is over? I've tried to point out where your intermarket technical analysis is wrong. Sometimes you have to see when your analysis might be wrong. Contrarian is good to a point, but come on. No sense in going down with the ship.

I hate to ask questions like this, but I just don't see your reasoning since you only post the vague 'we're headed to so ans so levels'. I'd love it if you would take a minute to explain to us all the reasoning behind your intermarket analysis.

kcounty said...

was that just a lot of selling around 10:59-11:02?

still trying to understand supply shock.

TA.Stockman said...

Carl's projection will stay intact as long as 1058 holds and there are no SUPPLY SHOCKS to the system. Right now, the momentum is not up OR down. It's stuck b/t 1055-1072.

I think a close above or below either points will determine the true direction. My indicators still say down, but might flip at 1072.

catherine said...

The inter-market predictions are problematic. I agree Tippy.
I cannot see spx at 1200 whilst eur usd is 1.25. They are highly correlated as has been pointed out before.

I see the problem as the following:

1. Carl concentrates on the spx. He does not post eur usd trades. I believe his non spx predictions are unbliased and correct.
2. For some reason, Carl is always bullish. This means that during bull runs as from march 2009, he is continually right with his spx predictions. When the market turns bearish - as from end 2007- March 2009, Carl continually has problems with his spx predictions.
3. I see this bias clearly - for example although correctly predicting the current 100 point spx drop, (kudos) I dont think a single publically posted short trade was made during this drop and the easy money was clearly going short rather than trying to predict the bottom.
4. There is still an outside chance that the spx makes 1200 so I am not saying , yes 100% it wont - but it wont with eur usd at 1.25

Urban said...


This is a free, self service blog. YOU need to take the time and make the effort to find your answers by reading Carl's prior posts.

If you don't find his approach helpful, then save your breath and move along. I think no one here will miss your posts. You are very confrontational. People who post here are trying to exchange ideas and be helpful to one another. If you don't find the content here helpful, feel free to move along to a site better suited to your needs.

Kishore said...

The crazy jump from 1058 to 1066 within 5 minutes shows that the market has gone loco, as in El Pollo Loco.

The bulls are scared, running around like chicken with their heads cut off.

I though that Jeff's wave C up was over but apparently not.

However, jerking around like this of the market only implies spasms before eventual breakdown of market's nervous system and our desire to participate. Let the HFT computers alone rattle their "brains"!

Jeff_in_CO said...

Carl, I've been watching your daily analysis for the past couple of years and your posted trades speak for themselves. As a trend-following position trader I don't trade your positions. But I certainly learn A LOT from your logic. There is much in common with all successful traders. Here are some of the recurring themes of some posters that don't make a lot of sense to me if one is to consistently make money in the market.
1. Talking about a trend without a timeframe is meaningless. Just what does it mean when people say we aren't in a trend? A 5 minute trend? 1 day, 30-day, 180 day trend? It's possible to be in an uptrend in one time period and a downtrend in another.
2. Lack of flexibility - permabear and permabull mentality. Do you want to be right or do you want to make money? I believe that only the market is right as reflected in the price. Arguing with the market is a great way to get separated from one's capital. Among others, Schwager's Market Wizards book series may help convince skeptics.
Jeff in CO

George said...

3 "headlines" from yahoo finance speak for themselves

# Why sovereign debt pain has only just started- CNBC
# An orderly selloff? Maybe, but investors fear worst- CNBC
# 40%-50% chance stocks will crash to new low: Gary Shilling

Tippy said...

I hear ya Urban. And I realize that it sometimes hurts when an opposing view is presented. I feel you pain there.

As for the basic reasoning behind the intermarket technical analysis, I've never seen Carl offer his detailed resoning, just predictions. I welcome it and if you could point me to a couple of links where he has previously posted it, I'd be much appreciative.

Don't get all defensive on me Urban. Sometimes the bulls are right and sometimes the bears are right, but both sides have the right to plead their case. I love the bull-bear banter here and find it very interesting, I'm sorry if you find my questions offensive...

Adam said...

Tippy - thank you for sharing the irrational Mr. Market side of thinking, exactly the sort of speculation Carl urges us to avoid in his book.

I would actually argue that it is important to see such posts too as it can give an indication of what Mr Market is thinking.

Tippy said...

This market feels like one of those games at fair where you use the sledgehammer to hit the scale to make the ball fly up to hit the bell. Only to fall right back down and try again.

Any of you guys managing to catch any of these rockets to the upside? I haven't been able to catch either the one Friday or Today.

George said...

the moves are so sudden you often have to be "in" to capture them. i actually did go long friday at good prices and am holding for another couple weeks.

Urban said...


I'm not a bull. Jeff's advise is dead right; be flexible and adjust. I see Carl adjusting constantly and very successfully. I try to do the same but I learn a lot from him and others here.

Best to assume positive intent when posting. By all means present opposing views, but keep the bitterness to yourself.

Tippy said...


I hardly seem to be Mr. Market. If anything, I'm the contrarian bear in the crazy bull den, lol...

Listen guys, I'm not saying the Leader here is wrong about his call, so no need for you guys to defend him en masse.

What I'm saying is that the underlying reasoning for the call is incorrect. Gold down, Oil down, Rates up and Dollar up does not produce a positive Equity environment.

Just look at today. Positive Equity environment = Dollar down, gold up, oil up, rates up. If you look at the predictions in the post that started this discussion, something is wrong with Carl's broad set of predictions.

Now I'm not here to say which of the predictions are incorrect, but some of them clearly are. They just don't fit together. It's up to use to figure out which ones are wrong.

If someone has a theory on why that combination of things will produce positive equity results, then I'd love to hear it. I'm not here to argue with you guys, just presenting my side.

Maybe I can learn a little something from the discussion.

pimaCanyon said...


This is not a conversational blog, that is, you ask questions and the blog owner responds. It's very very rare for Carl to answer a question. So I would not post a comment expecting Carl to respond to it.

Carl has his own methodology for his analysis and he shares some of that on this blog. Nearly every day he makes a post or two that supports his current thinking about market direction. He offers that at no charge.

You can, of course, post your opinions about future market direction. Other commenters may respond to what you've written, but it's not likely you'll get any responses from Carl re your comments. That's just not the way he runs his blog. And it is after all his blog offered to us for free. I for one am very grateful to him for this blog. I've learned a lot here.

Tippy said...

Here's a proposal and a fun experiment of the 'Contrarian' thesis: What's the bull:bear ratio in this room? Conditions: Bulls agree with Carl and say we on our way to 1200. Bears think we're going lower.

I'll start: Me = 1 vote for Bear

Let's see the final tally and see exactly which side is the true contrarian side...

Tippy said...


I think you win for best post of the day...

Kishore said...

Tippy, I love your posts.

In fact, I had another post today that Carl censored. It was to discourage those who try to discourage you from posting. Please ignore them!