Thursday, February 18, 2010

Guesstimates on February 18, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1088-1105. I think the ES has decisively broken out above its recent 1058-1080 trading range. The market will reach 1200 over the next three months.

QQQ: A rally to 50.00 is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: This market is now headed for support near 131.00. Resistance above the market is at 141.00. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

March Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00.

GLD – April Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance is at 1120.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 17.00.

Google: The next significant move should take GOOG above 700.


pimaCanyon said...

yo Jeff!

Yesterday: Dollar UP, SPX UP
Today: Dollar DOWN, SPX flat

You wanna lecture us again on that inter-market relationship, 'cause I think some of us didn't quite get it.

jeff said...


My intention is not to 'lecture' you and others, but point out an clearly obvious inverse relationship between the dollar and that of oil and the S&P.

I know I'm stating the obvious, but the the dollar trade is considered is a safe harbor play and folks tend to gravitate towards it when there is uncertainty in the marketplace.

I made the comparison relationships with the the dollar to that of oil and S&P a while back.

As I'll state again, take a look at the UUP, USO, and SPX in July 2008, March 2009, and January 2010 and draw your own conclusion (the charts speak for themselves).

On a shorter-term time frame, this same analysis holds water as well. To illustrate, compare prices for each between between mid-January to today.

I recognize there will be some days of divergence as you've referenced above, but as I have stated many times to readers and Carl alike, one has to have been burying his/her head in the sand to come to any other conclusion.

Hence, Carl and I clearly don't have the same opinion between the oil and S&P trade. If oil goes to $50/barrel, there is no way S&P goes on to 1200. I havn't done recent research, the oil related stocks comprise roughly 15%-20% of the entire S&P.

If you others have additional analysis or another opinion to share, feel free to post it so everyone can get the benefit.


pimaCanyon said...


I was being sarcastic, probably shouldn't have done that, my apologies. (Look up the derivation of the word sarcasm and you'll see what I mean.)

You are right, the dollar and stocks have had an inverse relationship recently, as in the past what, 3 or 4 years? But what about early 2000's? What about the 90's, the 80's, did that relationship exist then?

What I am saying is that just because that relationship has existed recently does not necessarily imply that it will continue to exist going forward. The inverse relationship will continue to exist until it doesn't. And then it won't anymore.