Thursday, February 18, 2010

Not much to say

The market's trading range has been unusually narrow the past two days. Even so, the ES continues to creep higher. I think this means that sellers prefer to wait for higher prices before becoming aggressive again. Why?

Note that 1103.50 and 1101.50 were high points of substantial rallies that ended on January 28 and February 2 respectively. The fact that the market has not run away from these previous high points (yet) contrasts with its action the last two times it traded at these levels. This is what makes me think that sellers are waiting for higher prices.

10 comments:

jeff said...

Only the liars know exactly what will happen next.

Until we either break above 1120 or go below 1083, I don't believe there is anything to do except watch from the sidelines.

khoekz said...

"only the liars..."

huh? You were the only one on here writing absolute statements about the market, how 1000 would be hit by this week. Generally, most others precede their statement with "I think..."

This is trading Jeff, nothing is certain. Like many others on here have said, we are all just guessing, everyone is guessing.

Sometimes it is an educated guess, I think that we can utilize certain indicators which can give us an idea of where the market may be going, kind of an art of educated guessing.

My 'guess' is that 1105 cash SP should not be broached before a small retraction. I think starting tonight and through the middle to end of next week, we will see a small breather of a correction, maybe 10-15 points. I am currently long SPXU at 36.43, with a stop at 36.

Overall, I am definitely bullish on the SP, and I expect to hit 1150+ in the first half of this year.

You were talking pretty big last week, where's my book?

As always, good luck to all

khoekz said...

And... I was wrong. Well played Carl, well played.

ga said...

Jeff---where do I send to you my address so you can have Carl's book shipped to me?

khoekz said...

I don't think Jeff actually reads the comments, he is just really good at pressing ctrl+c and ctrl+v...

Lots of people need their books Jeff, you made the statement, now own up. Talk is cheap

Carl, isn't this at least a little entertaining?

Carl Futia said...

I've known lot's of traders over the years. Not one failed to pay off a bet that he had lost. Of course I can't speak of the behavior of people who only pretend to trade.

Harry said...

Carl,

I have been short oil only to see it rise $10 in the last week. Please advise.

Thank you
Henry

pimaCanyon said...

Harry (er... no, make that Henry),

Maybe your post was meant as a joke?

If not, I will say that it's extremely rare for Carl to answer a question posed in a comment to his blog. So here is something he wrote that might be of assistance:

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2005/04/should-you-speculate.html

roguewave said...

....ain't she a wonder?... from Nov-lo-Jan-hi took all the fibo players to the woodshed on the way down ...first the 50 players then the 62s then the 79s leaving a huge bool bar in her wake gathering inventory the whole way and now all the "core shorts"..EW folks and fibonookies abused on the way up.....Mother Market is brilliant...price action rules again and again...Someone mentioned Al Brooks here. What a refreshing reminder. Kudos.

mfm9800 said...

Okay, been sitting in my robe all day long and now it's time to put on my shorts (Just before mkt close) and keep'em on till tomorrow afternoon. S&P hitting it's head on the 50 DMA and my bet is it will be pulling back. Nice scalping opportunity.