Here is a five point box, three box reversal point and figure chart. It shows 24 hour e-mini trading since the April 26 top at 1216.
The initial drop from the 1174 high of May 13 carried the market down 60 points (first blue rectangle). Then we had a 35 point rally (first purple rectangle). The next low occurred this past Friday at 1051 and was followed by a 37 point rally (second purple rectangle). I am guessing that the drop from yesterday's high at 1088 will match the initial drop from 1174 (second blue rectangle). If it does the low would be about 1028 (hence the 1030 low of today's range forecast).
I still think we shall see a print pretty close to or a little below the 1030 level before the market stabilizes and begins an extended rally (green oval). At this juncture the start of this rally would be indicated by a move above yesterday's high (green dash line) which would also imply an upside penetration of the steeper descending red trend line.
17 comments:
and what if 1028-1030 does not hold and we make further lows? What scenario will unfold then or do we cross that bridge when we reach there?
vs-trader.blogspot.com
Carl, I did a FIB extension downwards from the last pullback to 1093 and it comes up with 1025 for FIB extension of 0.618.
Interestingly, your lower blue box also shows 1025 as the low.
VS, I agree!
Everyone paints his / her own scenario.
For me, after a market makes a big move, I step aside, for a while anyways.
Carls boxes are moving the goal posts [lower] all the time. He'll stil be saying the same thing when we hit 950 on the S&P and then 700 on the S&P etc.
I am not disputing a rally is coming but not yet. Carl you've been bullish continuously yet I've only seen you trade once in the past 2 weeks or thereabouts. So you've been telling all your followers to buy but you have been on the sidelines. Why is that???
At what point are you going to say enough is enough and this rally is over?
Great call Carl, when Maverick UK stops talking like a jerk, time to short the market... you are a true contrarian... great work!
heh, good one!
MaverickUK, you may not agree with Carl's forecast, but I don't believe he has EVER told anyone to buy, even when the bull was raging.
Please take a look at this before you again suggest that Carl is telling his "followers" what/when to buy or sell:
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2005/04/should-you-speculate.html
How dare--MaverickUK!
WHAT A LOSER TALK!
I started with 50 cnt in Dec,2009.now I can trade 350-400 cnts easily.
How? I acknowledge all my "profits" and great learnings had been from Carl.
1030--1065,You Could buy around 1040 when clear buying signals appeared,sell at atleast at 1055.
Actually,this blog is giving us so much...and free.
Every word of his book and blog is worth million and he is making me rich like others.
I'm greatful to carl from my heart.
u have to give it to maverickuk...at least he has stuck his neck out with some very bold predictions, presumably when they don't pan out he will just go away.
When daily charts fail to give us guidance, we should look at weekly charts.
On weekly chart for S&P Index, the downtrend line was broken to the upside on Dec 4, 2009 and retested on Feb 5, 2009. If we consider another retest of the trend line, it will take S&P index to below 1000 and that will also be close to 38.2% rertracement of the rise from March 2009. But then, this is all guesswork.
It is hard to say where the market will find its current bottom but my personal favorite is a double bottom.
Looking at the severity of the current drop, I am sure many rally attempts will fail before the one that succeeds. Unquestionably, the market has been damaged.
Carl - you are right. I was out of order on that last comment. I apologise.
1038.50--1063--ES_F
carl's range estimates1030--1065.
It is all like parents providing food to kids.
Trading is fun when Carl gives us trading plan explaining to play within estimates.
JUST A THOUGHT OF REALISATION!
Thanks Carl!
Nice massive H&S forming on the /ES daily. The risk:reward here is good for that right shoulder.
Carl,
Does this strength in the market change your 1028 analysis?
ok folks..my system (60% correct) signals a swing bottom..and I am in.
do not wait for 1030 as it is not coming this time round...(may be later)
Naveedah,
good on you mate. 50 carats and now you at 350-400 wow. I assume total daily carats and not each trade 350!!!
Kishore you are good, but too much analysis is paralysis. Remember what you know the guys running this "Game" know too.
MaverickUK does have a point. Carl has been wrong quite often lately, and he kept changing the goalposts. This happens to all traders. But his analysis and commentary are great overall.
At the end of the day he is teaching you to fish NOT giving you fish.
To me 1036.75 is the low. We should look for a 1-2-3 bottom or a trend line break up.
We must close above 1056.00 for the week and above 1126.25 for the month will be good.
Do 50% retraces from 1112/1122/1147and 1174. Hi to low. Now numbers become apparent.
1153.00 on the daily close is important.
The full 50 = 1126.75...close to monthly 50 at 1126.25
I think its "Buy in May and go away."
MaverickUK,
Is that you Jeff?
BTW, why don't you guys (UK?) worry about what's going to happen to the EURO instead of what Carl is opining.
You've got a socialist mess across the pond. God help the US that we don't end up like the EU.
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