Monday, March 16, 2009

Guesstimates on March 16, 2009

June S&P  E-mini Futures: I expect a day session range of about 25 points today with a high near 773 and a low near 748. It is likely that the next 40-50 point move from here will be downward, but I also think the market will reach the 840 level in a few weeks.

QQQ: The 26.00 level is still support and I think the Q’s have started a move to 35.00.  

June Bonds: I think the long term trend in the bond market is now definitely downward. Next downside target is 117.  

June 10 Year Notes: I think a bear market in the notes is underway. Next downside target is 118.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro is headed down to 122.50. Resistance above the market is at 130.50. If this is broken substantially the market will probably head for the 141.00 level.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has nearly reached the 100.00 level. There is as yet no indication that the move up from 87.00 is over, so I now estimate that the yen will reach 104.00 before a substantial reaction begins.   

April Crude: The 30-35 zone is long term support. The 50.00 level is resistance. I think the market has started to stabilize.

GLD – April Gold: I think the market is now headed below 700. Resistance above the market is at 945.

SLV - May Silver: Silver is still holding 1240 support but I think this level will soon be broken.  If it is the market will be on its way below 800.

Google: I think that its drop from 747 is over. Support is at 290. Next upside target is 410. 

1 comment:

slip5ham said...

Retail bears are loading up right now expecting sub-600 lows in the next month or two. They are going to stay much too long at the punch bowl and it will get bloody. So many internet discussion boards have given these "technical" traders and pseudo-economists the reinforcement that makes them think they have certainty in this situation. As equities grind higher and higher they are just going to drive over the cliff together screaming how it's not right that the markets are rigged.