Friday, October 30, 2009

Broke support

This morning I was leaning on the 1054.50 level, the mid-point of yesterday's day session range, as support for any reaction from yesterday's 1064.00 high. That level was just broken decisively to the downside. I don't see any more support for this market until it reaches the 1035 level. However, I do think this up and down action is part of a base building process that should end early next week and be followed by a sustained up trend to 1120.

13 comments:

Jeff said...

I'm curious to know why 1053 was the low range boundary for your estimates this morning, yet you claim that 1054.50 was what you were leaning on. An error?

extrader said...

Kinda thought yesterdays rally was suspect due to the low volume!

I think now we are heading back to test 1038 and if we break 1038... another leg down which should carry us down to the 1010 area!

Andrew said...

Base building? On what timeframe?

MaverickUK said...

Carl, you are not seeing what is going on. The markets are going to be very volatile for a while until they realise the rally is over and we will then drop like a stone. The tops are already in.

F&H Painting said...

Base building...unless it breaks support, again

andi said...

bought some ES1038..i would be long here to see how the rebound looks..market oversold short term anyway...New month will bring in some buying..

Kishore said...

Because yesterday's bear killer massive rally of 27 points from the yesterday's low was less than 50% of the retracement of the down move that started on Oct 23, it is likely that the sell-off will continue ti levels lower than 1037. Moreover, the trend line on the daily charts has been broken. Very, very important!

Carl, I think we can forget about 1120, at least for a while. The bear market rally is over as Ben Bernanke can no longer throw any more money at market or crash the dollar to oblivion.

F&H Painting said...

hit 1035, seems to be offering some support

jeff said...

I know this isn't a paid service site, but I would pay Carl to understand his logic why he's not giving up on the 1120 level.

venczelmaria said...

Hi,
I am very new to this blog, but I do like Carl's thinking. There is the Full moon, the 22 day cycle and and the 4 month cycle bottoming on Monday. It is also possible that we will see a low this afternoon. The very nasty astrological period does not start until November 15-16th. Against all odds, I also beleive the rally to above 1120.
We shell see..............Maria

Andrew said...

I with you Jeff. I don't have anywhere near the experience or understanding of the markets that Carl does, but he seems to be quite stubborn about this one.

evi-und-juergen said...

Hello,

in my view, this is a abc correction with an overshooting wave b.

Wave a Sept. 17, price 1076 to Oct. 2, price 1012. Wave b Oct. 12, price 1012 to Oct 21. or Oct. 23. Since then wave c.

This correction has a duration of 43 days until now.
Excurs:Gann defined a so called death zone, which is a time band that lasts 45 to 49 days. As mentioned, today is day 43 but we also have to count the weekend so we would be at day 45 and the beginning of the death zone.
I expect this index to stop around the negative 1x1 Gann-Angel starting at Sept. 17 at 1076. 1076 -45 is 1031 and 1076 -49 is 1027.
So I do not expect prices much lower 1027.

Regards from Germany
mobil1

Steve said...

Hi evi-und-juergen,

Do you have a blog? I find your Gann analysis very helpful.