Thursday, October 15, 2009

Guesstimates on October 15, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is again 1075-1090. A move to 1120 is underway.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Yields have dropped more than I expected. Still I think this market has a good chance of holding the 3.90 yield zone and then starting a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think that the 3.10% level will provide support and that the market will soon begin a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.

GLD – December Gold: Almost at 1070 but market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.

9 comments:

andi said...

i think 1075 buy seems like a good idea here..i intend to cover some of my shorts there and buy SSO

alejandromagana said...

Carl:
What do you expect after reaching 1120?

F&H Painting said...

Carl,

Since we are geting close, what happens after 1120?

Kishore said...

1085 is where we are currently at. 1120 is still a good 35 points away. Even if one bags these good 35 points, I guess that will give one enough money to go on a vacation.

After 1120 CAN BE a good time for a vacation, but only if we live in the present!

Larry said...

On September 25th Carl made the following comment:

"I still think the 1120 level will be reached by the end of October. If enough divergences show up at that time I will start looking for a break of 100 points or so before the bull market resumes. But it is still too early to make any trading plans based on the possibility of such a break."

I'm truly interested to see what happens once the SPX reaches its 50% retracement leave near 1120.

Shlomo said...

Carl,
Crude is now trading over $77 after inventory numbers, even though dollar is not so weak today. Are you updating your prediction?
Thanks

andi said...

folks, do no take it as gospel that SPX will reach 1022..or whatever target..
One can say that upside is limited here at least in short/inter term..so i would not recommend fresh money here for a long

Kishore said...

The next retracement level after 50% retrace is at 61.8%. QQQQ and IWM are above the 50% level and are approaching 61.8%. As the market is being led by QQQQ and IWM, it is possible that SPY and DIA will follow to 61.8%. Otherwise, SPY and DIA may head down from the 50% level itself. One can guess anything one likes but the probabilities favor continued up movement.

Guessing games don't make money. It is all in the action of timing of the trades.

One can make money even going long in a down market or going short in an up market but one can make more by doing the opposite and will have better odds.

However, one can lose all the time, if the timing of the trades is screwed up. It is safe to assume that we will screw up the time in the shorter time frames. So, it safer to take the shorter time-frame trades in the direction dictated by the longer time-frames.

For trend traders, big money is made bu sitting and not by trading, as Jesse Livermore once said. For example, a long position since March AND HELD would have more money than all of the short term trading put together.

kleenup2 said...

Kishore you and Andi talk a lot but say very little. It is quite obvious that you guys are not traders nor are you investors. You guys are a watchers and followers. Stop reading all those books and quoting Livermore, Kass, Elliotwave, etc. Being long since March has not outperformed even average traders. The market is up a total of 1086-666=426 pts. 7 months 426 pts; 20 trading days/month means 140 trading days. 426 pts/140 days= an ave of 3 ES pts per day. The daily ATR of the ES has been 17 pts. Just because you can afford to fund an account doesn't mean that you are a trader; just as being able to afford a pair of sneakers doesn't make you a basketball player. You guys continually try to out guess Carl and the market but have proven to be very poor at it.