Friday, October 16, 2009

Update

Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. The market has rallied off its morning lows but I am guessing that it will halt near 1087-88 and then put in another leg down to a low early next week (declining red channel). Midpoint support stands near 1070 (purple dotted line).

One this reaction is complete I think the e-minis will move above the 1100 level, reaching 1120 by the end of the month.

5 comments:

Joseph said...

like your play, similar call on EvilSpec by Berk that I found to support. Do we really have enough time to hit 1120 by mth end?? USO OIL and SPY need to both play together to make this work. Whats your % of probability by mth end 1120

Love the site carl as many do!!!
Joseph

Will said...

Carl-

Where do we go after 1120?

Thanks-

Will

Aarpenn said...

Carl,

You are amazing. The numbers you gave for market today were right on. Thanks

Aarpenn

PM said...

Hi Carl,

I suspect we'll eventually move higher, much higher, but I think this coming down swing may be deeper than most expect... here's why:

If you look at a daily continuation chart of the SP futures front month over the last few years, a downtrend line can be drawn from the two highest points; the first is the high set on 10/10/07 at 1586.50 and the second high set on 5/19/08 at 1442.00... to be very precise, I created a downtrend line mathematically to eliminate any guess work or manual errors...

There are 144.50 points from the first high to the second high... including weekdays when the markets are closed, there are 153 days between these two highs...

If I divide the price difference between both highs by the number of market days, I arrive at a downtrend line which moves lower at the rate of .944444 points each market day...

This past Friday, 10/16/09 is 367 days after the 5/19/08 high of 1442.00... at the rate of decline for this downtrend line we would place this down trend line for Friday, now two years in the making, at exactly 1095.38, Friday's high was 1095.20, this means Friday's high came within .18 points of this two year downtrend line... this amounts to one or two ticks depending on whether you're looking at the mini or the large contract...

The mathematics is stunning... I think the market could still move much higher, but I now also believe it will have to overcome this hurdle, a pull back of some significance may be upon us and it could be deeper than anticipated... this remains to be seen, but I believe it's well worth noting...

Thanks...

Kindest regards,

PM

mehmet said...

Hi Carl, why do you prefer intraday charts to 24 hr cont. chart ? it would be really great if you could send a short note to share your thought .. onbilgin.m@gmail.com .. thanks. mehmet