Tuesday, October 06, 2009

Guesstimates on October 6, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1035-1050. A move to 1120 is underway.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Yields have dropped more than I expected. Still I think this market has a good chance of holding the 3.90 yield zone and then starting a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think that the 3.10% level will provide support and that the market will soon begin a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.

GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 970.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Upside target at 500 has been reached. Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.


Kishore said...

Carl, the market is dancing to your tune!

We have just broken a bull flag even on the daily charts.

Once again, Congratulations!!

Last night, I read a few of the blog from the bear camp. Once again, they are eating their words. The market entices them with a small drop only to trap them. It is so dangerous to short this market.

andi, where are you??

andi said...

kishore, not be so sure..i think the bounce is nearing end..they had to spread dollar rumor to support the market..i am short 1050 here

Kishore said...

andi, there are always "reasons" for the market to go down but the market appears to have a mind of her own and Carl knows how to read her mind.

Right now, all of the indicators and the market internals are confirming the "reasons" for continued upward momentum of the market. Follow the price action. Everything else is "noise".

MA said...


Market has obviously blasted through the 1042 resistance point mentioned yesterday. Logic would demand that the market pull back from here, (but this the market - logic is optional). Do you still see a pullback here before further moves higher?

andi said...

kishore,,yes & yes. But stay tuned, something is coming. Risk reward favors short position here.

DL said...

All eyes on the dollar. Dollar carry trade in full force and the market won't have any extended downturn until the dollar finds a bid.

MaverickUK said...

Carl - I have just noticed that you think the dollar is about to strengthen significantly. If that is the case (and as the markets have been going higher on a weaker dollar) then we will not be going up but down.

Isn't that correct? How do you tally the 2?

Kishore said...

DL, it is quite possible that the dollar may lose its status as the reserve currency. This can lead to either the dollar becoming of no consequence and it would mean an outright failure of Ben Bernanke's strategy of monetizing of US debt, or it can lead to major international tensions. Either way, the dollar will soon be toast. This scenario will be in line with deflation in the US. The days of conspicuous consumption by Americans are over.

Kishore said...

As deflation is more likely, the market will come down. The question is not of if but only of when, maybe only when there are no more bears left. Right now, the market is on a mission: bear extinction.

andi, watch out, unless you can afford to go into hibernation.