Monday, October 05, 2009


Here is an hourly bar chart of day session e-mini trading. I think that Friday's early morning low at 1012 (not shown on this chart of day session trading) ended the drop from the 1075 top on September 23. I think the market has started an up swing that will take it to 1120 over the next few weeks.

Even so, the price and volume action today has not yet shown either a demand shock or a fast rejection of the day's low. Consequently I think that the market will probably bounce off of the 1035 level and drop back down into the original target zone of 1015-20. The 1035 level is resistance defined by the last significant low (horizontal red dash line) and the upper line of the rising blue dotted trend channel of the past two days.

Should we instead see strength on good volume above the 1035 level I would conclude that the market will continue upward with reactions amounting only to 8-10 points.

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