Thursday, October 29, 2009

Guesstimates on October 29, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1038-53. The market has started a base building process and will soon begin a move to 1120.

QQQ: Support is at 41.10. Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: The market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.


Yāvar said...

I think S&P500 will start higher than 1050 and will pass 1060 today.

Yāvar said...

Check pre-market prices for BAC, MS, GS, GOOG, MSFT, AAPL, WFC.

Yāvar said...

Also check pre-market prices for cheaper stocks like LYG, MOT.

angel* said...

I longed at open and have taken my profits for the day. Not showing off but what I want to say is that Carl, reading your analysis gives me confidence everyday in my trades and I am so grateful to you. Just want you to know. :)

John M said...

What angel said. You're an enormous help, Carl.

Cristian said...

Hi Carl,

Regarding EUR dropping below 120, do you think that can happen while the market is going up towards the 1120?

Usually a drop in EUR (raise in USD) causes the market to drop rather than rally.

Actually, a more basic question. I never found out whether the currency drives the market or the other way around. I believe it is the currency markets leading the stock market, but I am not entirely sure.

I would appreciate your comments and thanks for the work you put into the blog.


andi said...

sold partial ES @1054 on a loss...i do not like the tape..holding onto small long for breakeven on that..see another 10-20 pts max upside here

Alex said...

More than you nailing this market for the past 8 months is the fact that I don’t know any other guru/author/expert/trading superhero who are still in the trenches, publicly.

Greatly appreciate your work.

Wags94596 said...

As I commented yesterday, the FXE (euro) came down to important 40 day MA support which also happened to be a fib-retracement.

That 147.00 area basically held, and now the dollar is getting SLAMMED once again which means you buy every natural-gas, coal, and mining stock that you can get your hands on that has gotten oversold in the last week!