Monday, October 26, 2009

The Yo-Yo

After today's pit open the e-minis rallied nearly 10 points on moderate volume. This is an uncorrected move off of the Thursday-Friday double bottom near 1071. I have to respect this bullish activity since I am still expecting a move to 1120. I conclude, therefore, that this market is on its way to 1120 and that the 1050 level is no longer a likely target. If I'm right about this support at 1080 should hold. Today's high will probably be 1096 or so.

9 comments:

andi said...

folks can refer to my comments before that market is exhibinting it very volatile nature in 1075-1100 range that is often a precurser to breakout most likely to the downside...
I sold partial as i had recommended buying @1075..still this can go as high as 1095

Kishore said...

Carl, I notice that you have not been taking any trades in this Yo-Yo market. You are a smart man!

The market action today is very intriguing while the yield on 10 year note is going up and the dollar index is in a narrow range.

I appears that we can neither be very bullish or very bearish in this market.

jeff said...

agreed. this yo-yo action doesn't seem like a positive to me.

i'm also looking at an S&P 4 month trough to trough cycle that has been occuring since 2007. the last 3 occurances we've seen a trough are November 2008, March 2009, July 2009. If the trend continues, the next trough will occur early next month.

Bill said...

The market has been trading between 1075 and 1100 for quite some time now. This is a consolidation and the longer this consolidation goes the higher the probability that the break will be to the upside and not the downside.

This issue will be settled this week one way or another. The GDP number on Thursday might be the catalyst to force the market to make a decision.

Chances are the market will move higher before it moves lower.

jeff said...

talk about a yo-yo market, the S&P has crossed 1086 or so over a dozen times since 10/14. net/net, we are up 4 points. enough to drive you batty!

Invest SGX said...

the range of trading getting bigger and more volatile, and prediction/analysis getting tougher. You may be right to pin out target 1120, but daily wise, mostly failed.

jeff said...

the 60 minute chart is starting to resemble a topping pattern. if the S&P doesn't convincingly break above 1095 before falling, this will prove another stepping stone pattern of the topping process.

MaverickUK said...

Carl - this market is playing with us all. Still expecting the market to fall and with an initial 1060 target on the S&P futures before a bounce (as you stipulated previously). Also there is a H&S in play - the formation is complete. A break of the neckline gives a target of around 1056 I calculate.

The markets may well close negative today.

Kishore said...

MaverickUK, yes I agree that the market is the one that does all the playing and jerking around of all those who think they play the market.

Inspite of all the market shenanignas, I still think that Carl was right with his original view of the market testing 1050.