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Very nice entry after a reversal.Of course who knows if we'll make a lower low later.
Carl,I really like the way you analyze the markets. You are more accurate than a lot of other people I pay attention to on the net. One questions on your recent analysis (last week or so) I have is why aren't you considering $ appreciation on S&P? To me it looks like those are not decoupled. If the short covering begins on US dollar, there is potential for S&P to go down substantially in next few days. I know you are a purely technical trader, but is it a good idea to keep any eye on dollar chart as well?
My 1045 target for this week almost hit, for now the selling is over and think we get a good 25-30pts bounce from here... Looking for 1075 area!Good Luck
On daily charts, the trend line from July low has been breached. I know we are mostly day traders here, but how serious would that breach be for a the next few days?
I think today is a make or break day...we need to bounce here. Another failed rally and close below 50 DMA would spell doom.
There are many "experts" on this forum who make bold but senseless predictions and give unsolicited advice, based on who knows what, but can't answer a simple question!How serious is will the impact be of the breach of the trend line from July lows, on daily charts, over the next few days or months?
Kishore,If ur a daytrader, u do not need to know about the impact 3-6mths out... Who cares about the impact if ur not a swing trader?
1046 is MAX low for today!Jump on board for the next wave up
kishore:first breach means nothing..it needs to settle below that TL to have any meaning ..even then it doesn't mean it will sink..it can develop another lower TL...
Sorry about earlier post... but my MAX low for today is 1043-1045!
All - Upon review of other ETF charts, some of them have already broken the March support line. My sense is today's S&P break is one last bear trap before another small market rally and the big whoosh down thereafter. Specifically, I'm looking at the XLU chart as a leading indicator of the S&P, which you can see touched the March trend line 3 times, fell below it a couple weeks ago, subsequently went to slightly exceed the old highs only to roll over again. Since we are short-term oversold here, I'm looking for similar traits on the S&P, which would be consistent to Carl's thoughts for 1120 or so. However, I continue to wait for that bounce rather than going long here, rather than buying and 'hoping' for the bounce.
Sorry, but breaching of trendlines are somewhat useless. They retest and often bust back through. Look at any 1-hr, 15-min, etc. timeframe and you will see how "trendlines" (of support/resistance) get played. Use them for stops (+/- %) is all I do.I think momentum and trend indicators are more useful for knowing when to get in and stay in (and when to consider getting out).
Consider a Long position around 1046-1047
Kishore,No one here is obligated to answer anyone else's questions, especially the experts who are likely much too busy. ;-)But here is a stab at it from a non-expert: Because there was a big hoopla about this trendline on CNBC a couple of days ago, everyone (the herd) is looking at it. So the contrarian approach would be to buy a break of the trendline.Good luck!
Breaking the trend line is serious. It could well mean that we continue down for another week, maybe two. There will likely be some rallies in there that are tradable.The first thing I think when we break a trend line is, we'll backtest. So an up move would be expected at some point relatively soon, maybe later today, maybe by the end of the week. We've surpassed Carl's lowest target of 1045, just barely, so this may be a bounce coming up...
The sell-off is getting serious. After all we are in the 3rd or C wave down. Moreover, today is clearly a down trend day with DECL-ADV breadth at 2522-477 and down volume to up volume ratio of 6.94 to 0.93.There wil be plenty of time to go long again but, meanwhile, it will lots of risk and guts to go short at this time.When we miss it, we miss it! No point in running after a moving train.
The FXE (euro) has strong support at 147.00 Could provide a "bounce" to all of the energy names and coal stocks that are getting oversold in this decline.
Johm M, Thanks for your answer. I agree that breaking of the trendline on daily charts is serious, especially the one with a history of rebounds during the rally. I am amazed at some of the other answers here.Carl's blog is one of the best blogs on the internet, with the greatest degree of accuracy, consistency, rationality and integrity.However, the comments section is largely disappointing as it violates the spirit of the blog on which Carl bases his own postings. The comments section appears to have been taken over by those making baseless predictions and giving unsolicited advice. Therefore, I will no longer waste my time with the comments section.
Kishore, "no point in running after a moving train" Unless you need to get to CHICAGO!
you can follow along with CNBC folks and watch trendlines!http://marketkarma.blogspot.com/2009/10/trendlines-trendlines-oct-26-2009.html
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