I was expecting you to hold overnight. I read your blog every day. I'm starting to get a really good feel for how you think, and the market does seem to act pretty much like you expect it to act.
It's unusual for you to hold overnight (at least the trades that you post here), so that says a lot about your conviction that we are nearing a bottom here.
So am I. My system tells me we are in a configuration that will bring the SP to +1088.50 . It may take 8 days. I'm always mentally prepared for the ride. It's always a bit bumpy, but it pays dearly.
Carl, Thanks for all you do. Usually, you cut your losses pretty quick. Can you give an explanation to all your readers why you rode this down all the way from 1053 and decided to hold overnight. Thanks again.
i am with u carl..but this sell off is unlike past selloffs that surely raises my bear antennae meaning i will look forward to weak 1/3-1/2 retrace of ~60 pts decline (20-30 pts that is)
Takes some conviction to hold overnight with 12 handles down. When you have a moment, can you clarify if you think the correlation between the dollar and the stock market will end. Otherwise I cannot see how you expect Euro to move down but the market to move up. Today's selling seemed to be synchronized to the dollar movement. Perhaps you can address this in a future post. Thanks.
The NYSE Advance / Decline line was absolutely horrible today at 476-3359 which is 7:1 on the downside.
91% of the volume on the NYSE was to the downside and the McClellan Summation Index broke down below the Sept. 2nd and Oct. 2nd lows.
Looks absolutely HORRIBLE but if the GDP report is weak and the Dollar sells off, you could easily see all of the energy, coal, and drilling names bounce hard out of oversold conditions.
The FXE (euro) is right at important 40 day MA support which is a .618 retracement of the rally up from the Oct. 1st low.
I think if the market trades below 1038 expect another leg down of 30pts to the 1010 area... GDP number may be a pretty big number and may set the tone for which way we go from here... but from what i see, im expecting another 30pts drop if we hold below 1038!
At this time going thru multiple ETFs. i am getting scared of holding longs..I see russel breaking down ..i see dollar breaking up the wedge.. Folks, i am going to lighten my longs or exit as soon as i get the opportunity...
Agree with TradingNuggets. We are way oversold here on the breadth indicators, and overdue for a bounce. We may not make new highs for a while, but we will bounce up for at least the next few days or weeks.
17 comments:
I was expecting you to hold overnight. I read your blog every day. I'm starting to get a really good feel for how you think, and the market does seem to act pretty much like you expect it to act.
I too bought too early and will hold overnight.
It's unusual for you to hold overnight (at least the trades that you post here), so that says a lot about your conviction that we are nearing a bottom here.
Good luck, Carl.
So am I. My system tells me we are in a configuration that will bring the SP to +1088.50 . It may take 8 days. I'm always mentally prepared for the ride. It's always a bit bumpy, but it pays dearly.
Carl,
Thanks for all you do. Usually, you cut your losses pretty quick. Can you give an explanation to all your readers why you rode this down all the way from 1053 and decided to hold overnight. Thanks again.
i am with u carl..but this sell off is unlike past selloffs that surely raises my bear antennae meaning i will look forward to weak 1/3-1/2 retrace of ~60 pts decline (20-30 pts that is)
Takes some conviction to hold overnight with 12 handles down. When you have a moment, can you clarify if you think the correlation between the dollar and the stock market will end. Otherwise I cannot see how you expect Euro to move down but the market to move up. Today's selling seemed to be synchronized to the dollar movement. Perhaps you can address this in a future post. Thanks.
Geo
Very nice post. But I think it may take a while longer for the correction to end.
It appears to be more brutal than any other one we had over the last 7 months.
But the timing signals will help us figure our when the turn occurs.
P.S.
I get my timing signals at http://invetrics.com
I have been bullish all along but I think market has spoken clearly now. Sell rallies is back in vogue IMO.
The NYSE Advance / Decline line was absolutely horrible today at 476-3359 which is 7:1 on the downside.
91% of the volume on the NYSE was to the downside and the McClellan Summation Index broke down below the Sept. 2nd and Oct. 2nd lows.
Looks absolutely HORRIBLE but if the GDP report is weak and the Dollar sells off, you could easily see all of the energy, coal, and drilling names bounce hard out of oversold conditions.
The FXE (euro) is right at important 40 day MA support which is a .618 retracement of the rally up from the Oct. 1st low.
Hi Carl.
If /ES cannot stay above 1030 tomorrow, are you thinking that we will see 1015 next?
We are way in the "oversold" territory on the McClellan Osc. We have a "pop" sometime soon...maybe Thursday or Friday
Jack
I think if the market trades below 1038 expect another leg down of 30pts to the 1010 area... GDP number may be a pretty big number and may set the tone for which way we go from here... but from what i see, im expecting another 30pts drop if we hold below 1038!
Good Luck
At this time going thru multiple ETFs. i am getting scared of holding longs..I see russel breaking down ..i see dollar breaking up the wedge..
Folks, i am going to lighten my longs or exit as soon as i get the opportunity...
Agree with TradingNuggets. We are way oversold here on the breadth indicators, and overdue for a bounce. We may not make new highs for a while, but we will bounce up for at least the next few days or weeks.
I see 1032 as the snap back point with similar characteristics to lows made since June. -MK
http://marketkarma.blogspot.com/2009/10/sp500-oct-28-2009.html
By the way, the domain mentioned by 'michaeld' has sockpuppets comment-spamming all over the trading blogs. SeekingAlpha is full of them.
careful Longs, sell the rips!
Post a Comment