Monday, October 12, 2009

Climbing the Wall of Worry

Check out my latest post on "The Art of Contrarian Trading".

12 comments:

Larry said...

Carl,

The following comment is stunning to say the least:

"This top is not likely to develop until late 2010 and I think it will return the Dow and the S&P 500 to within whispering distance of their 2007 high points."

Wow!...is all I can say.

Larry

extrader said...

Carl,

So, are u saying that the SPX will be back to 1500 in late 2010? That is how I am reading it and that would mean the economy would do a V recovery along with the stock market!

Im with you Larry, WOW!

ex

Matthew said...

Hey - for old media like Time, Newsweek and newspapers everywhere, it IS worse than the depression. Their 401ks, if in company stock, aren't going to comeback.

You're going to have to develop a method to use social media website to judge sentiment. Sounds like a job for Robert Heinlein ...

Kishore said...

What I read from Carl's assertion, "This top is not likely to develop until late 2010 .." is that the printing presses of the US government will stay in overdrive. In other words, to hell with the US dollar, so long the "numbers" at stock market look good.

With continuation of the policy of feeding the wolves at Wall Street, by the US government, the market may continue up but millions will be homeless, starving and jobless. Crime will escalate.

In other words, US is in the direction becoming like the third world, corruption, widespread poverty, crime and a few relatively "rich" bulltards!

fiki said...

Late 2010...? With in a year? It took SPX almost 8 months to retrace 50% and the first part of a bullmarket is suppose to hold the biggest gain. Are you sure about the timing?

boris said...

I think we are putting the top in either 13th of Otober or 13th of November and 2010 top may just be an echo top, if not absolutely, surely on the dollar adjasted bases and that means Dollar index under 50 and gold between 2500-3500

As it is Market is hardly up in terms of the gold and not even at the leles of 7000 in DOw in real terms.

Good luck America, good luck your retirment Dear Pensioner, This is how USSR got destroyed one RUBLE at a time. Is this kind of world we would like to live in?

GOod Trading

As a trader we all have to do what we have to do. Carl's prognosis cannot be assertained at this time, but there is no need to do so at all. Just Overweight GOld in your portfolio

jeff said...

Carl,

I enjoy most of your comments, but this isn't a wall of worry time in the market, it's a slope of hope.

Take a look at the monthly charts from 1995 and you'll notice since late 2007, the S&P has made lower highs while everyone is "hoping" that the worst is over! We are not quite far from reaching another critical level on this descending line(~1,120) from which many will think the end of the recession is here; however, will realize another big swoosh down. I think what folks must understand that what happens in a regular Bear market (one to three years maximum), happens also in a Secular Bear market (16 to 18 years)... the only difference is that a Secular Bear Market last more than a decade ! In a regular Bear market you have multi week counter-trend rallies, in a secular Bear you have multi month counter-trend rallies ! Countertrend rallies in all Bear Market feel good, are sharp with declining volume and take everyone by surprise! Please don't tell me that this multi month rally was not sharp with low volume, and did not not take anyone by surprise and doesn't have the characteristic of a bear market rally !

Laurence said...

Most main street media has been extremely complacent as the economy continues to fall apart. Green shoots make headlines even when most of these are over sold bounces. Hardly a climate of panic.

Kishore said...

Laurence, the climate has been that of an idiotic exuberance. The question is for how long can the bulltards stay in that sate of mind? Maybe, long enough to make the bears extinct!

andi said...

well kishore:
i just added to my shorts @ES1075...
let's see who wins.

Speculator Ed said...

We are repeating 1930s in a much larger scale. I think we are currently at #13 of the pompous chart:
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/prognost.html
Chase not letting me buy inverse ETFs anymore with my 401K is the ultimate indicator that the suckers rally is about to end.

vinaydh said...

Speculator Ed, Chase not letting you buy inverse etf's shows that they have doubts that you can remain solvent fighting the market. I didn't know that Chase folks were this smart.