Thursday, October 08, 2009

Guesstimates on October 8, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1056-1075. A move to 1120 is underway.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Yields have dropped more than I expected. Still I think this market has a good chance of holding the 3.90 yield zone and then starting a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think that the 3.10% level will provide support and that the market will soon begin a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.

GLD – December Gold: Still expecting 1070. Support is at 970.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Upside target at 500 has been reached. Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.


extrader said...

Futures way up this morning... wouldnt be surprised if we gapped up and close the gap around the 1056 area where I see support and with Carl's lower range! I think 1056 needs to hold to march closer to Carl's 1120 target!

Good Luck

MC said...

i think the eurusd is less risk to hold it for a ride towards 1.58-1.60 before dropping it to 1.20. My view, only my view. Cheers. MC

ditaset said...

hi karl from greece.when you see euro/usd 120, is that means that in mid term you see the stock market much lower? ps. thanks for guesstimates.

Pele said...

Carl, oil has traded in direct correlation with the the SPX for the last couple of years. Seems you are expecting this relationship to decouple here.

MC said...

it may be the case, but if this correlation holds for the time being, doesnt mean it will hold for the eternity :-) you better think at the longer end of the curve, instead of concentrating on what the stock market is doing only. I hope this is of help, Cheers. MC.

Market Karma said...

Gents,, I am not sure what market you are looking at, but the SP500 and oil correlation has not been one way for years. During the oil bubble rise of 2007 to July 2008, higher oil equated to lower equities and vice versa - a negative correlation as high oil was perceived as a tax on the functioning economy. Now the correlation is positive as higher oil prices are perceived as a sign of a recovering and growing global economy - china, india, etc. will need oil as their economies grow. Lesson is to analyze oil to trade oil and analyze S&P to trade S&P. Correlations always change and unless you are running a true wide ranging stat arb correlation strategy, I would be cautious on betting on X vs.Y hinged on a spurious correlation. And in fact, this is why you see Carl make calls across various asset classes that dont seem to add up from a correlation perspective (particularly for those who follow FX where the cross asset does trade in the open market). I am sure Carl does his analysis on market-A to trade market-A! -MK