Friday, October 23, 2009

Jumbled

Here is a thirty minute bar chart showing 24 hour e-mini trading. I always try to follow the market's trend as indicated by unusual activity (high volume and/or uncorrected price movements). I also try to follow the trend as indicated by sequences of successively higher or successively lower trading areas (blue rectangles).

After the housing number came out at 10am this morning the e-minis pulled a high volume, u-turn that broke the market out of its overnight trading range (last blue rectangle). This action forced me out of my long position even though the bottom of my range estimate was 1085. The reason I ignored the range estimate is that the high volume selling started at almost exactly the same price as Wednesdays high volume selling (red arrows). I figured that the same sellers were at work. The big uncertainty now is just how much ammunition they have left in their clip.

I still think that the odds favor the market heading for 1120 instead of for 1050. The critical line of support I am watching is the midpoint of yesterday's range (green dash line). If the market holds it I will try to get long later today or on Monday.

5 comments:

extrader said...

Carl,

I am looking for a possible long entry at 1081.50 if we go down there and market is stable!

ex

John M said...

Carl, doesn't this look like the kind of chart you see when the market is about to change trends? Like all things, it's no lock, but it sure has that appearance.

Thanks again for all your work.

Bill said...

No doubt the market has been jumbled for a few days now trading in a tight range.

Typically when with this happens the market is either trying to break some heavy resistance or is making a top before correcting down. I agree the former is more likely than the latter. So like you say, the market will most likely head to 1120 and not 1050

extrader said...

MAX low for today should be around 1073-1076... we go up from here!

Denali92 said...

From a daily and weekly perspective, we seem to be closely following last June's price action.

There are clearly some big boys playing at 10am these days as the botom yesterday and the top today both occurred right after 10am.

I sense 1050 is more likely and yesterday was the fake out move just like we have had a few times lately