Thursday, October 08, 2009

Update

Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. A move up to 1120 is underway. I think the first significant reaction (20-30 points) will start from the confluence of midpoint resistance at 1092 (red dash line) and the upper bullish channel line.

Meantime there is midpoint support at 1050 (purple dotted line). The biggest reaction on the way up from Friday's low has been about 14 points. If a drop from today's high of that size were to develop it would take the market down to 1052. Obviously, the fact that I am currently long a full position means that I do not expect a reaction of that size today, but I do think a 13-15 point break from the 1075-80 zone is more likely than not.

3 comments:

Kishore said...

Great commentary, Carl! Very clear thinking!

Incidentally, how do manage to ignore all the noise?

Crashes are hard to predict but divergences can persist for quite sometime before they actual become effective. Even though there are signs of a short-term correction from UUP and VIX charts, they do not mean mid-term trend change, i.e. suddenly out of the blue.

Whatever happens in the market is visible to all, but everyone has his/her own interpretation. That's what makes it so interesting and unpredictable.

khoekz said...

Carl,

love your work. do you ever just sit there and chuckle at guys like Andi? i bet you get a lot of satisfaction when your market estimates are correct over and over...

silly andi...

Wags94596 said...

Carl, excellent work!

All of these other bloggers are merely Elliott Wave "Perma-Bears" that simply do nothing other than "fit" indicators towards their own preconceived BIAS. The constantly toss up the VIX, RSI, MADC, and $BPSPX as showing divergences, this, that, and the other thing . . . yet these indicators have very little PREDICTIVE value.

It's also interesting to note, that NOT one of these EW followers ever gives the cummulative NYSE A/D line any weight of the evidence. Instead, they conveniently IGNORE it and that speaks volumes!

Again, kudos for "listening" to the market in an OBJECTIVE manner!

:)