Friday, October 02, 2009


Here is a hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. The market dropped into the target zone (green oval) on the employment numbers this morning. It found support at the confluence of the lower bearish channel line (dash red lines) and midpoint support at 1015 (horizontal green dash line).

I think the drop from 1075 is over, but I also think it will take another day or two for the market to establish a base that can support a move to 1120. In the meantime the first rally will probably run 30 points or so, the extent of the last big rally (purple rectangles) before it encounters significant resistance.


extrader said...

Going LONG at 1023.50 to test the high of the day... with stop under 20MA...

Teich said...

Hi Carl.

Great update. Assuming that /ES makes it up to 1045 and then reverses, given that it is in a downward-sloping bearish channel, what is the next lower low that it will test? /ES 990?


Bill said...

Carl, you are sticking to your guns and still predicting a move to 1120.

I think that right now the market is oversold, so it has a good chance of bouncing back next week. That said earnings will determine what the market does. And it can go either way depending how companies' Q3 results look like, a few more results like Research in Motion and a significant correction could get under way.