Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Guesstimates on January 29, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Yesterday the futures moved well past resistance at 1342 and this means that the market is headed up into the 1400-1420 zone before another substantial reaction develops. Even so, I think that sometime in the next couple of weeks we shall see a drop back to the 1300 level or a little lower before a multi-month upmove begins. I think the market will take only 3 or 4 months to move above the 1600 level.

QQQ: I think the Q’s are headed for 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The market will probably bounce off its 2003 top of 123-03. Support is still at 118-12. TLT has nearly reached its 98.50 target.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes should encounter strong resistance at 120. Weakness below 115-08 will mean that the trend has turned downward.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is establishing an important low but another drop down into the 104-105 zone is likely before a sustained rally can begin.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: Resistance is at 95.00. I think that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The market moved well past resistance at 915 yesterday so I conclude that it is now headed for 1000. Support now is at the 885 level.

SLV - March Silver: It looks like silver is bout to move past resistance in the 1660-80 zone and the next upside target is 1830. Support stands at 1500.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon. The 515 level is support.


Anonymous said...

Your projections are utter nonsense.
Here's a trial for you. When was the last time the S&P move up 300 points in a 3 month timeframe?

Carl Futia said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Carl Futia said...

Dear anonymous:

On October 8, 1998 the cash S&P 500 closed at 959. Three months later, on January 8, 1999 this index closed at 1275. On planet Earth that amounts to a 316 point gain in 3 months. What does it amount to on your planet???

Anonymous said...

I agree that the market is closer to a bottom than a top. The explosion in new lows pretty well cements this. Also, the earnings yield on the SPX is 5.80% as compared to a 3.66% yield on the TNX. This 1.58x differential is sufficient to draw investment funds into equities.

Further, as long as the yen remains moribund and the carry trade is alive and well, we are likely to see further inflation in equities and/or commodities, and further deflation in the dollar. There is just too much company in the ranks of the doomers and gloomers to precipitate a major sell-off at this point. If you listen carefully, you can hear the splash of the lemmings plunging to their doom in the morass of the destitute.



Anonymous said...

based on your thinking
the sp 500 will be at new all time highs by end of march or in april
the reasoning behind my post the other day saying no way it will happen is in relation to 1966 as well as my own present day cycles
1998 does not fit into this picture which is why i dont feel your corect in that regard even if you see similarities . also the 1932 to 1937 scenerio has similarities to today which if the mkt continues to follow would call for a low in mid june while the 1966 trend would call for a low march 6th .so i think your wrong
but not completely wrong as the mkt is bottoming if not already bottomed . well seel how this all fits together in te coming months