Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Guesstimates on January 22, 8:40 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The Fed cut rates 75 basis points this morning and the e-minis rallied up to 1305 before falling back all the way to 1260. I will try to be a buyer somewhere below 1250 but I have no orders in as yet. The most likely sequence of events from here is that the market first rallies about 120 points or so from whatever low it makes today or tomorrow. Then a drop all the way back close to or even below that low. Finally a big rally which I expect to last several months and carry the market above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: Support is at 43.30 and a rally to 48.00 or so is imminent.

TLT - March Bonds: The market has encountered very strong resistance in the 121-122 zone. Support still stands at 117-16. TLT is headed for 98.50.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes reached 118-16 this morning but I think that will be it for this rally. Support is at 116-08 and weakness below there will mean that the trend has turned downward.

Euro-US Dollar: I think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market will stage a very big rally from the 105.00-106.00 zone.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: I think that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The short term trend is still upward but any weakness below 850 will mean that an extended decline has begun. Resistance remains in the 910-20 zone.

SLV - March Silver: Support stands at 1500. The market has stalled in the 1660-80 zone and soon should start a big break.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon. The 550 level is support.


Will Rahal said...

Talk about luck!

My work calls for a bottom today.
See "Short Terrm Bottom for Jan 22, 2008",posted a few days ago.

Anonymous said...

I think your call for a significant rally will come true now that the FED is giving a way jet fuel for that rally. Still not sure about new hi's though, but I do not want to fight a panicked FED in the short run

Anonymous said...

I expected a turn of some sort this quarter because it's 21 quarters from the 2002 low. I believe that turn will be the low we're making here in January because, among other things, one clue is it's Lucas 76 months from the 2001 low. Also, cycle analyst and statistician Tim Wood studies what he calls the 22-week cycle (some traders simply call it the 20-week) and I believe August was the last 22-week low - which points to January as the next ideal time for a low. This is all in line with Carl.

BeautifulWorld.me said...

Hi Carl,

Big Bang Day by the Fed.

Hope that it sticks even though market reaction to AAPL is disappointing.

My SPX downside to 1275 +/- noted on 12/12/07 is met.

Markets pulled back faster than I thought.

Good luck with your trades



Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

I note that the last time the commercials went short in a big way was February, 2007. Right now they obviously see it the way you do. I look for them to be heavily short at the top. Timing "patterns" make me suspect a top in July, and I see some of your work points there.