Friday, January 25, 2008

Guesstimates on January 25, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Resistance above the market is still at 1375 and any strength above that level would be very bullish indeed. However, it is still my best guess that sometime during the next week we shall see the e-minis drop about 100 points back down below the 1300 level. After that break I shall start looking for a move to new bull market highs. I think the market will take only 3 or 4 months to move back above the 1600 level.

QQQ: It looks like the Q’s will rally a little more, say to 46.50 or so before testing the low at 41.60.

TLT - March Bonds: The market will probably bounce of its 2003 top of 123-03. Support is still t 118-12. TLT has nearly reached its 98.50 target.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes continue strong after the Fed rate cut but the 120 level is resistance. Weakness below 115-08 will mean that the trend has turned downward.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is establishing an important low but another drop down into the 104-105 zone is likely before a sustained rally can begin.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: I think that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: Gold made a new high this morning but I still think strong resistance is centered at 915 so another move down towards the last low at 850 is likely. The short term trend is still upward but any weakness below 850 will mean that an extended decline has begun.

SLV - March Silver: Support stands at 1500. The market is stalling in the 1660-80 zone and soon should start a big break.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon. The 515 level is support.


Anonymous said...

I knew it that you will not post your trades for very long.
It is just too easy to slamm you,
you are a louzy trader Carl and the last 3 month have proven it.

RJO said...

Hi Carl,

I really appreciate your work. So many people out there are pushing a specific bias and never change an opinion. If wrong, they go to a "LONG term investment".

I think you call it as you see it and your change in opinion on GOLD gave me a lot of respect for you. Your call for new market highs is looking good also. Keep up the good work.

Carl Futia said...

Dear friend:

Well, I have been trading for 40 years and am still in business! Just lucky, I guess!

Your own comment proves three things to me and everone who reads it.

First, you don't actually trade yourself because if you did you would know that losing streaks happen. You would have developed some humility about your own abilities and would not be eager to criticize others.

Secondly, you know nothing about the behavior of markets or the business of investing. If you did you would understand that the key to survival is not to be badly hurt by unusual events such as the recent market meltdown. The losses I have taken are spit in the ocean to me.

Third, you are a coward, not only because you hide behind the "anonymous" label but because you are afraid to post your own views for everone else to see (I don't expect you to post your own trades since you never make any).

Whatever losses I incurred will be made up quickly once normal market rhythms return. In the meantime I shall continue to post my trades as I make them. Unlike you, I am not a coward and do not loose my nerve whenever a minor setback occurs.

BH_Trade said...

Carl, I take it you plan to be a buyer of this upcoming move <1300? Any chance we never get the retest ala August 2007 lows. said...

Good morning, Carl

The gap and crap action during morning trading hours is not so cheerful.

Nice rebuttal to the pestering harasser. LOL

It looks to be that markets already retested the lows with the climactic actions ... the double candle formations. But with the volatility, less sure about market actions than ever before.

Have a great weekend,


Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

I hope you have a good weekend. I really doubt we break the lows next week. Tuesday's low was a great candidate for a significant turn, being 254 weeks (233+21) from the 3/2003 low, 144 weeks from the 4/2005 low, and 89 weeks from the peak of May, 2006.

Thanks for sharing your work!

Anonymous said...

I am believe that next weeks stockmarket break the lows and big hard crash.

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

We had a 39-day rally from the August low to the October high, an intervening decline, then a 39-day up/down sequence from the November low to this week's low. That's merely an observation, but it's in the context of the Fibonacci I mentioned earlier. Let's just say it's something to watch. Enjoy your weekend.

Anonymous said...

Carl said, "I think the market will take only 3 or 4 months to move back above the 1600 level."

Was it ever above 1600?

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

I'm amazed at how many pundits label this a bear market now, from Cramer to most of the usually gung-ho bullish types on Saturday TV, etc. But what may be more telling is their certainty. They say, "This is a bear market now, so da da dah..." They don't say, "We appear to be in a bear market" or "We're probably in a bear market now."