Friday, January 18, 2008

Guesstimates on January 18, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: My 1340 stop was hit yesterday but I think the market is on the verge of a 100+ point rally, so I shall be a buyer today at 1341, again using a 25 point stop. I think this market is making a very important low and is about to rally to new bull market highs.

QQQQ: Support is at 45.30 and from there I think the market will embark on a rally to new bull market highs.

TLT - March Bonds: The market has reached the 120 level and will encounter very strong resistance in the 121-122 zone. Support still stands at 117-16. TLT is headed for 98.50.

March 10 Year Notes: Market has reached resistance at 116-16 and while it may take a peek above 117-00 briefly I think the big move up is essentially over. Support is at 114-20.

Euro-US Dollar: I think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market will stage a very big rally from the 105.00-106.00 zone.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: I think that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The short term trend is still upward. The market has bounced off of resistance in the 910-20 zone and support stands at 865.

SLV - March Silver: Support stands at 1500. The market has stalled in the 1660-80 zone and soon should start a big break.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon. The 600 level is support.


Anonymous said...

Be bullish, this market is a screaming buy. You are on the right side of the trade Carl.


Anonymous said...

Carl was bullish at 1550 and 1500 and 1450 and 1400 and 1350 and now we are near 1300 and he´s still bullish. Expensive analyzing, imho. Sometimes it is better to go short, or just stay flat and wait.


Carl Futia said...


Yes, sometimes it is better to be right about the market's direction than to be wrong.

Next time you see that I am about to make a big mistake, why not do me a favor and tell me right away instead of waiting 3 months?

Until you can tell this blog's readers in advance what the market is going to do, I can only conclude that you are only an expert at predicting the past.

Unknown said...

I am on the linoleum floor, drinking cheap tequila, and waiting for a bottom. Hoping for a short squeeze later today.

Anonymous said...

Again, you have readers that are keen on pursuing comments that border on pathetic. You are directed by an investment methodology of your design and have the smarts to employ stop losses. Well, maybe you have been incorrect in recent weeks, the losses suffered have been modest. At the end of the day, what is important in this business is not to marry yourself to your call, but to the invaluable tool of selling when you are wrong. Longevity creates massive wealth...a simple fact often ignored by the less accomplished traders.