Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Guesstimates on January 16, 9:00 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I got stopped out at 1396 yesterday and today I will be a buyer at 1365 using a 25 point stop initially. I think this market is making a very important low and is about to rally to new bull market highs.

QQQQ: Support is at 45.30 and from there I think the market will embark on a rally to new bull market highs.

TLT - March Bonds: The market has reached the 120 level and will encounter very strong resistance in the 121-122 zone. Support stands at 117-16. TLT is headed for 98.50.

March 10 Year Notes: Market has reached resistance at 116-16 and while it may take a peek above 117-00 briefly I think the big move up is essentially over. Support is at 114-20.

Euro-US Dollar: I think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market will stage a very big rally from the 105.00-106.00 zone.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market closed below 92.00 yesterday so I conclude that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The short term trend is still upward. The market has rallied into the 910-20 zone which is very strong resistance. Support stands at 865.

SLV - March Silver: Support stands at 1500. I think the market will stall in the 1660-80 zone and then have a big break.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon. Support stands at 625.


Anonymous said...

SPX August lows---BUSTED.
Hurst Cycle Analysis--BUSTED
Elliot wave---BUSTED
Bears better run?---BUSTED
ABCDE triangle---BUSTED
All arguments for rally made by many 2 weeks ago??---BUSTED
All so many self-proclaimed gurus---BUSTED
Indicators showing rally by many 2 weeks ago---BUSTED

Carl Futia said...

Dear Busted:

Posts like yours always come out on the day of the low.

Anonymous said...

Very funny, Carl, you made me laugh out loud. Thanks!


Anonymous said...

LMAO, good one Carl.

I'm buying ESH8 on the next dip towards todays low. will ad if it moves to 1366.... 1417 first target.

Anonymous said...

It is interestng that the MAs of advancing issues have been in neutral territory for so long. They are trading in a tight range between the extremes of the past year. Also, net breadth has not seen a reading at or below -2000 since mid-December. We may be near an important low - I don't do any work personally that projects time or price lows - but I do not recall seeing a significant intermediate-term low without any sign of capitulation from breadth.

My guess is we are going to see a very sharp move and soon, but I have no idea which way. If the lack of capitulation in breadth is signaling a divergence against price it will be up; if the capitulation in breadth is ahead of us it is going to be down.

Trade strategy and tactics will deterine one's results in either case.

Anonymous said...

hi carl,

wondering since all the support levels and trends have been it possible that we could be in a short term bear market, may be for the next couple of months to come? would appreciate your input if you get a chance.

thanks very much.


Anonymous said...

You are the only one in this country in denial we have entered a bear and heading much much lower. Like Cramer would say, "you know nothing!..nothing"

Laughing stock of blogosphere that's who you are.

Carl Futia said...

"Laughing stock of blogosphere that's who you are."

Dear Laughingstock:

Thank you. Posts like yours give me the courage to face another day.