Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Guesstimates on January 23, 8:35 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis are now trading down 45 points below yesterday’s close. The ideal stopping point for the futures break is the 1230 level. A rally of 100-150 points should be the next development subsequent to a low near that level. I think the market will take only 3 or 4 months to move back above the 1600 level once the low is in place.

QQQQ: Support is now at 41.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The market will probably bounce of its 2003 top of 123-03 and then break at least 5 points. TLT is headed for 98.50.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes continue strong after the Fed rate cut but the 120 level is resistance. Weakness below 116-20 will mean that the trend has turned downward.

Euro-US Dollar: I think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market will stage a very big rally from the 105.00-106.00 zone.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: I think that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The short term trend is still upward but any weakness below 850 will mean that an extended decline has begun. Resistance remains in the 910-20 zone.

SLV - March Silver: Support stands at 1500. The market has stalled in the 1660-80 zone and soon should start a big break.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon. The 550 level is support.

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