Monday, January 28, 2008

Guesstimates on January 28, 8:45 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I don’t think the drop from Friday’s high in the e-minis at 1370.75 is quite over yet. Resistance today above the market is is1342 and I think the futures will take a peek below 1300 before another rally sets in. The next rally should carry the market to or above the 1400 level. I think the market will take only 3 or 4 months to move above the 1600 level.

QQQ: I think the Q’s will drop to 42.50 or so before resuming their rally. The next step upward should carry at least to 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The market will probably bounce off its 2003 top of 123-03. Support is still at 118-12. TLT has nearly reached its 98.50 target.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes should encounter strong resistance at 120. Weakness below 115-08 will mean that the trend has turned downward.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is establishing an important low but another drop down into the 104-105 zone is likely before a sustained rally can begin.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: I think that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think strong resistance is centered at 915 so another move down towards the last low at 850 is likely. The short term trend is still upward but any weakness below 850 will mean that an extended decline has begun.

SLV - March Silver: Support stands at 1500. The market is stalling in the 1660-80 zone and soon should start a big break.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon. The 515 level is support.


Anonymous said...

hey carl
joe here
with all due respect there is in my opinion no way we will see new highs with in 3 to 4 months .
having an opinion is great yet with out any solid cyclical proof it is just a guess at best .
new highs i do think are coming by yr end . and the mkt overall coming into a low by march 6th i can go with with cyclicly yet i think your way to optomistic in thinking that this will just turn on a dime and go vertical in less time then it has fallen . as per the 1998 analogy your working with
that to has its flaws as we have been falling for several months now not several weeks . there is much closer conections to 1966 and also 1937 1938 . so while you may be proven correct about turning bullish i think your off base at which degree of this trend we are in .
constructive critisism is all
i wish to send
this is either point 18 or possibly point 26 hat is ending
i favor point 18 yet both are 50 50 at this point

Anonymous said...

You missed the rebounce opp, I think. New high 1600? Almost impossible. But you never know, let market tell us the truth.