Thursday, January 31, 2008

Guesstimates on January 31, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Since the January 22 low in the futures at 1256 we has seen two completed reactions of about 60 points and I expect the drop from the late afternoon high to be the third one in this sequence. It has covered 54 points so far. I think there is a good chance that the e-minis will make another low in the 1315-1325 zone before heading up into the 1400-20 zone. I think the market will take only 3 or 4 months to move above the 1600 level.

QQQ: Support is at 43.10 and I think the Q’s are headed for 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: Support is at 118-00 but weakness below there will mean that the market has started and extended drop. Meantime I think the bonds still have a short at the 2003 top of 123-03. TLT has nearly reached its 98.50 target.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes should encounter strong resistance at 120. Weakness below 115-08 will mean that the trend has turned downward.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is establishing an important low but another drop down into the 104-105 zone is likely before a sustained rally can begin.

XLE - OIH - USO – March Crude: Resistance stands at 95.00. I think that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 885 level.

SLV - March Silver: It looks like silver is bout to move past resistance in the 1660-80 zone and the next upside target is 1830. Support stands at 1500.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon. The 515 level is support.

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