Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Guesstimates on January 8, 8:40 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Yesterday the S&P futures and the Spiders took out the late November low. I think the Spiders will drop into the 136-139 range before the market can start a rally to new bull market highs. Resistance in the March futures still stands near the 1450 level. After the market rallies for a day I shall be looking for a chance to go short.

QQQQ: The Q’s broke their November lows Friday and are headed for the 46.00 level.

TLT - March Bonds: I have changed my mind about the short run direction of this market and am now looking for a move above the 120 level. Support stands at 116-16. TLT is headed for 98.50.

March 10 Year Notes: Headed for 116-16. Support is at 113-20.

Euro-US Dollar: I have changed my mind about the short term direction of the euro and now think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I now longer think that 108.20 support will hold but I do think the market will stage a very big rally from the 106.00 level.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: Crude should soon hit 101.50 before an extended drop starts. I think the market will drop to 75 and lower during the coming months. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The futures hit 879 this morning and I think this will produce a temporary stall. Support is at 850 but the short term trend is still upward. I think the market has a good shot at the 910 level.

SLV - March Silver: Silver is getting close to the 1570 resistance level and I think a stall there is likely. Support stands at 1500. I think that the 1644 high in March silver will hold.

Google: GOOG is headed for 630. Once that level is reached a move to new bull market highs should begin.


Anonymous said...

Still no change from last week. Gift horse <1450 EOM.

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

I'm wondering why you plan to go short as your recent trading history has been to be on the sidelines during a drop and then go long after you've determined that the drop was complete.

I'm guessing that you must feel more confident about this upcoming drop to 1360-1390 on the cash s&p than other times you have predicted a drop in order to short this bull market.

Good luck with it!


Anonymous said...

Hi, are you sure yesterday took out the 11/26 low in S&P futures? I have 1406 approx for 11/26 low and only 1410 for yesterday.


J said...

Dr. Futia:

I've been around the horn for awhile. I can remember another Lindsay proponent, Jerry Favors (I think I'm right about this). I was just wondering...(1) is he still alive and publishing, and (2) have you ever had the pleasure of discussing Lindsay theories with him. I am wondering what his "count" is currently.

Best of luck.


Carl Futia said...


Sadly, Jerry Favors passed away about 2 years ago (I think). I never had the pleasure of a conversation with him, but was aware of his work.

Anonymous said...

I agree with targets around 1350ish and time is up now or a day or two.

However any talk of a new highs will have to wait about 8 or 9 years.

I concede a marginal new high in the intervening period is a chance but the range traders will be the gurus for many years to come.

If you are around from 2016 till 2032 then a great bull market will be in action.