Thursday, January 24, 2008

Guesstimates on January 24, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The market staged an 80 point rally yesterday afternoon and this looks like a decisive rejection of the 1250 level which now should hold for quite some time. Resistance above the market today is at 1375 and support is at 1315. I think the market will take only 3 or 4 months to move back above the 1600 level.

QQQ: The initial stage of this rally should encounter resistance near the 45.00 level. Support is still at 41.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The market will probably bounce of its 2003 top of 123-03. Support is at 118-12. TLT has nearly reached its 98.50 target.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes continue strong after the Fed rate cut but the 120 level is resistance. Weakness below 115-08 will mean that the trend has turned downward.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is establishing an important low but another drop down into the 104-105 zone is likely before a sustained rally can begin.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: I think that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The short term trend is still upward but any weakness below 850 will mean that an extended decline has begun. Resistance remains in the 910-20 zone.

SLV - March Silver: Support stands at 1500. The market has stalled in the 1660-80 zone and soon should start a big break.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon. The 515 level is support.


Anonymous said...

Am somewhat confused.Have you abandoned the retest after 100points or so, as of yesterdays blog.

Anonymous said...

Hello Carl,

At least one author has shown examples whereby the amount of market points in a move will sometimes be a Fibonacci number. I find it interesting that the decline from the October high to Tuesday's low is 2563 DOW points - very close to the Fibonacci number 2584. (The difference is Fib. 21.)

Andrew Wright said...

Hi Carl,

Love the blog, check it often... but you have been calling for 1600 for close to a year now!.... I just dont see it! Especially in 3/4 months with the technical damage overhead

Anonymous said...

at the risk of seeming silly, the medianline sets i trade which called for the collapse into the recent low and which i would be glad to share if there was a way to post, continue to hold out the possibility of the largest one day point spike in history.. todays action was price coiling under the last possible resistance.. above which there is no resistance for at least 500 dow points... i am not forcasting; i am simply saying what the logic of the geometry suggests.