Friday, January 11, 2008

Guesstimates on January 11, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I am long from 1391 and have brought my stop up to 1396. Support today is in the 1400-1410 zone. I think the next step up will bring the futures into the 1450-60 range. The positive divergences I see in the advancing issues numbers are telling me that a big advance is underway.

QQQQ: I think the odds are good that the Q’s are headed up to 51.00 and eventually much higher than that.

TLT - March Bonds: I am looking for a move above the 120 level. Support stands at 116-16. TLT is headed for 98.50.

March 10 Year Notes: Headed for 116-16. Support is at 113-20.

Euro-US Dollar: I think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I no longer think that 108.20 support will hold but I do think the market will stage a very big rally from the 105.00-106.00 zone.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: Crude should hit 102.50 before an extended drop starts. I think the market will drop to 75 and lower during the coming months. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The short term trend is still upward. Support is at 850. I think the market will rally into the 910-20 zone which is very strong resistance.

SLV - March Silver: Support stands at 1500. I now think the market will take a peek above its 1644 high but will stall in the 1660-80 zone and then have a big break.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon.


Anonymous said...

Just as a warning Carl. I predict you will get stopped out the day before the surprise rate cut next week. The S&P cash will hit 1366 before we get zapped with a surprise 50 bp rate cut next week. I will be a buyer of the S&P Emini at 1375. Should be quite an impressive rally as the fed eases at least another 25 on top of the surprise cut at the january meeting. For now I will say a 25 point stop at 1350 for the futures. I will set the stop if my order gets filled. Remember set order to by the March E-mini at 1375.

Gary said...

Just curious as to why you think there is strong resistance at the $910-920 level for gold. Gold is trading at new all time highs there is no resistance. It's now trading in a vacuum. Of all the things in this world gold and silver have to be the cheapest. Heck they are both trading at roughly the same price as they were in 1980.

Anonymous said...

Just saw Tim Woods piece on Safe Haven site about this correction being the delayed 4yearCycle decline which he sees bottoming in 2010! Is there some way you could express your thoughts on this?


Carl Futia said...


As far as I can determine, Mr. Woods has been bearish on this market since 2001. So the fact that he is currently bearish is of little significance.