Thursday, January 17, 2008

Guesstimates on January 17, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Today I will be a buyer during regular hours at 1365 or better using a 25 point stop initially. I think this market is making a very important low and is about to rally to new bull market highs.

QQQQ: Support is at 45.30 and from there I think the market will embark on a rally to new bull market highs.

TLT - March Bonds: The market has reached the 120 level and will encounter very strong resistance in the 121-122 zone. Support still stands at 117-16. TLT is headed for 98.50.

March 10 Year Notes: Market has reached resistance at 116-16 and while it may take a peek above 117-00 briefly I think the big move up is essentially over. Support is at 114-20.

Euro-US Dollar: I think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market will stage a very big rally from the 105.00-106.00 zone.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: I think that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The short term trend is still upward. The market has bounced off of resistance in the 910-20 zone and support stands at 865.

SLV - March Silver: Support stands at 1500. The market has stalled in the 1660-80 zone and soon should start a big break.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon.


Anonymous said...


I still hold my GS and ICE shorts, and opened MON, MOS and CF Apr to May puts yesterday. In my mind, the market is not close to the bottom.

Take care,

Anonymous said...

BTW, Carl, I also trade YM a little. Really I think it's not a perfect move to long ES right now.

Take YM as example, I think the current down move will reach around Dow 12100 before we see some meaningful dead cat bounce. But, that's around your stop loss point (1 ES = 10 YM) if you already went long this morning.

Anyway, good luck!

Anonymous said...

Bullish astrocycles are getting closer and run into early February

Venus conjunct Jupiter, Venus Trine Saturn, New Moon conjunct Neptune.

New moon Neptune was primary cause of the 9/3/1929 top, lets see how bullish it is this time. It looks like one heck of a rally is about to start. (Overdone technical damage OPEX hedge activity?)

Anonymous said...

Check out this chart Carl

Anonymous said...


Today I closed 60% of my puts, bought ES @ 1338 at close to hedge my YM short position. I think it might, or might not be the short term bottom.