Monday, January 14, 2008

Guesstimates on January 14, 8:35 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I am long from 1391 and have working a 1396 stop. There was some glitch on Globex this morning at 2:01am New York time that resulted in ES prints all the way down to 1360. The exchange has since cancelled all trades below 1398 so I am still long. Support today is in the 1400-1410 zone. I think the next step up will bring the futures into the 1450-60 range. The positive divergences I see in the advancing issues numbers are telling me that a big advance is underway.

QQQQ: I think the odds are good that the Q’s are headed up to 51.00 and eventually much higher than that.

TLT - March Bonds: I am looking for a move above the 120 level. Support stands at 116-16. TLT is headed for 98.50.

March 10 Year Notes: Headed for 116-16. Support is at 113-20.

Euro-US Dollar: I think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I no longer think that 108.20 support will hold but I do think the market will stage a very big rally from the 105.00-106.00 zone.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: A close below 92.00 would mean that the market is headed much lower. Meantime I shall still be looking for a move to 102.50. Looking further ahead I think the market will drop to 75 and lower during the coming months. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The short term trend is still upward. Support is at 850. I think the market will rally into the 910-20 zone which is very strong resistance.

SLV - March Silver: Support stands at 1500. I now think the market will take a peek above its 1644 high but will stall in the 1660-80 zone and then have a big break.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon.

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