Tuesday, January 01, 2008

Stock Market Posts in 2008

Here is a list of links to the stock market related posts I made in 2008. They appear in reverse chronological order.

DECEMBER

Out - December 31
Long - December 31
Out - December 30
Added - December 30
Long - December 30
Up - December 19
Down to 830 - December 18
Out - December 18
Long - December 18
A day of rest - December 17
Covered at 901.50 - December 17
Short - December 17
Out - December 17
Holding Overnight - December 16
Added One Unit at 888.50 - December 16
Long - December 16
Very Bullish Action - December 12
Down - December 11
What Can't Go Down Must Go Up - December 11
Sold One Unit at 897.00 - December 8
Added One Unit 906.25 - December 8
Long - December 8
Move Above 850 resistance - December 5
Out - December 5
Short Again - December 5
The Employment Number - December 5
Out - December 5
Added Another Short Unit - December 5
Short - December 5
Covered - December 4
Out at 860.50 and short there - December 4
Out one unit at 865.75 - December 4
Added - December 4
Rally Boxes - December 4
Long - December 4
Out - December 3
Added - December 3
Long - December 3
Out - December 2
Covered One - December 2
Added - December 2
Short - December 2
Down to 760-70 - December 1
Out - December 1
Long - December 1

NOVEMBER

Out - November 26
Long - November 26
Out - November 25
Added - November 25
Long Again - November 25
Out - November 25
Added - November 25
Long Again - November 25
Out - November 25
Long - November 25
Out - November 24
Added - November 24
Long Again - November 24
Out - November 24
Long - November 24
A Look Back at 1981 - November 20
U-turn Ahead - November 20
Out - November 20
Added - November 20
Long Again - November 20
Out - November 20
Added - November 20
Long - November 20
Up - November 20
Looking for 775 - November 19
Bullish Action - November 18
Out - November 18
Long - November 18
Day's trend is now up - November 18
Going Down - November 17
Out - November 17
Long - November 17
Out - November 17
Short - November 17
Out - November 17
Long - November 17
Out - November 14
Added - November 14
Long - November 14
Shakeout Complete - November 13
Down to 805 - November 13
Down to 875 - November 10
Out - November 10
Long - November 10
Still No Support - November 6
Out - November 5
Long - November 5
Out - November 3
Back In - November 3
Out - November 3
Long - November 3

OCTOBER

Out - October 31
Added Again - October 31
Out Half - October 31
Added - October 31
Long - October 31
Out - October 30
Long - October 30
Out - October 29
Short - October 29
Out - October 29
Added - October 29
Long Again - October 29
Out - October 29
Added - October 29
Long - October 29
Upside Breakout - October 28
Down to 800-810 - October 28
Out - October 27
Added - October 27
Long - October 27
Hmm... - October 21
Out - October 21
Added - October 21
Short - October 21
Down - October 21
Out - October 21
Added - October 21
Long - October 21
An Encouraging Day - October 20
Out Again - October 20
Short Again - October 20
Out - October 20
Short - October 20
Out - October 17
Long Again - October 17
Out - October 17
Added - October 17
Long - October 17
Out - October 16
Long Yet Again - October 16
Out - October 16
Out Add - October 16
Added - October 16
Long Again - October 16
Out - October 16
Long - October 16
Covered - October 14
Added - October 14
Short - October 14
Long Yet Again - October 10
Out - October 10
Out of Add- October 10
Added - October 10
Long Again - October 10
Out - October 10
Long - October 10
Panic Volatility - October 8
Long - October 7
Rally - October 6
Out Again - October 6
Long Again - October 6
Out - October 6
Long - October 6
E-mini Update - October 3
Out - October 3
Added Second Unit - October 3
Long - October 3
Out - October 2
Long - October 2
Out - October 1
Long - October 1


SEPTEMBER

Advancing Issues - September 29
Short - September 26
Out - September 25
A Look Ahead - September 25
Added Second Unit - September 25
Long - September 25
Headed Up - September 25
Headed for 1160 - September 24
Out Then Short - September 24
Added Second Unit - September 24
Long - September 24
Long - September 22
Out - September 18
Long Again - September 18
Out - September 18
Long Second Unit - September 18
Long - September 18
Added - September 17
Long Again - September 17
Flat - September 17
Added Second Unit - September 17
Long - September 17
Volume - September 16
Out! - September 16
Long - September 16
Bullish Divergences - September 16
Day's Low is In - September 16
Who Is Buying - September 15
Long - September 15
E-mini Update - September 15
Covered - September 15
Short - September 15
Added Second Unit - September 12
Back In - September 12
Flat - September 12
Added One Unit - September 12
Long - September 12
Flat - September 11
Stop Loss Procedures - September 11
Reversed Position - September 11
Short - September 11
Up to 1230-32, then ? - September 11
At the Close - Flat - September 10
Bought More - September 10
Long - September 10
Big Volume - Going Up - September 10
Down to 1210 - September 10
What's Next? - September 9
Covered - September 9
Shorted Second Unit - September 9
Fourth Time at 1250 - September 9
Short - September 9
Advancing Issues - September 8
Update - September 8
Flat - September 8
Short - September 8
Up to 1250, Then Down - September 5
What's Ahead - September 4
Covered - September 4
Yikes! - September 4
E-minis - September 4
A Late Decision - September 3
E-minis - September 3
E-mini Update - September 2
E-minis - September 2

AUGUST

E-mini Update - August 29
E-minis - August 29
E-minis - August 27
E-minis - August 25
E-minis - August 20
E-mini Update - August 18
E-minis - August 18
E-mini Update - August 15
E-minis - August 5
E-mini Update - August 1
E-minis - August 1


JULY

E-minis - July 14
E-mini update - July 11

JUNE

E-minis - June 27

MAY

APRIL

Cash S&P - April 2

MARCH

E-mini Update - March 14
Long the E-minis - March 14
Long the E-minis - March 11
Just Bought E-minis - March 6

FEBRUARY

E-mini Afternoon Update
- February 19
E-mini Update - February 19
Raising the Stop - February 12
E-mini Update - February 12
Cash S&P 500 - February 1

JANUARY

Crash !!
- January 21
New York Times: Stock Plunge - January 18
E-mini Update - January 17
Stock Market Forecast for 2008 - January 14
E-mini Update - January 10
E-mini Update - January 9
Advancing Issues - January 7
Cash S&P 500 and E-mini Update - January 4
Cash S&P 500 and E-minis - January 2

Daily Guesstimates in 2008

Here is a list of links to the daily guesstimates I made in 2008. They appear in reverse chronological order.

DECEMBER

December 31 - 8:30 am ET
December 30 - 8:40 am ET
December 29 - 8:40 am ET

December 26 - 8:40 am ET
December 24 - 8:40 am ET
December 23 - 8:40 am ET
December 22 - 8:40 am ET

December 19 - 8:40 am ET
December 18 - 8:30 am ET
December 17 - 8:35 am ET
December 16 - 8:30 am ET
December 15 - 8:30 am ET

December 12 - 8:30 am ET
December 11 - 8:30 am ET
December 10 - 8:30 am ET
December 9 - 8:30 am Et
December 8 - 8:30 am ET

December 5 - 8:35 am ET
December 4 - 8:30 am ET
December 3 - 8:30 am ET
December 2 - 8:30 am ET
December 1 - 8:30 am ET

NOVEMBER

November 28 - 9:15 am ET
November 26 - 8:35 am ET
November 25 - 8:35 am ET
November 24 - 8:30 am ET

November 21 - 8:30 am ET
November 20 - 8:30 am ET
November 19 - 8:30 am ET
November 18 - 8:30 am ET
November 17 - 8:30 am ET

November 14 - 8:35 am ET
November 13 - 8:30 am ET
November 12 - 8:30 am ET
November 11   8:30 am ET
November 10 - 8:30 am ET

November 7 - 8:30 am ET
November 6 - 9:10 am ET
November 5 - 8:30 am ET
November 4 - 8:30 am ET
November 3 - 8:30 am ET

OCTOBER

October 31 - 8:30 am ET
October 30 - 8:30 am ET
October 29 - 8:30 am ET
October 28 - 8:30 am ET
October 27 - 8:30 am ET

October 23 - 8:30 am ET
October 22 - 8:30 am ET
October 21 - 8:25 am ET
October 20 - 8:30 am ET

October 17 - 8:30 am ET
October 16 -  8:30 am ET
October 15 - 8:30 am ET
October 14 - 8:30 am ET
October 13 - 8:40 am ET

October 10 - 8:30 am ET
October 9 - 8:40 am ET
October 8 - 8:40 am ET
October 7 - 8:30 am ET
October 6 - 8:30 am ET

October 3 - 8:20 am ET
October 2 - 8:30 am ET
October 1 - 8:30 am ET

SEPTEMBER

September 30 - 8:25 am ET
September 29 - 8:30 am ET

September 26 - 8:30 am ET
September 25 - 8:20 am ET
September 24 - 8:30 am ET
September 23 - 8:20 am ET
September 22 - 8:20 am ET

September 19 - 8:30 am ET
September 18 - 8:30 am ET
September 17 - 8:30 am ET
September 16 - 8:30 am ET
September 15 - 8:20 am ET

September 12 - 8:20 am ET
September 11 - 8:20 am ET
September 10 - 8:20 am ET
September 9 - 8:15 am ET
September 8 - 8:15 am ET

September 5 - 8:25 am ET
September 4 - 8:20 am ET
September 3 - 8:15 am ET
September 2 - 8:15 am ET

AUGUST

August 29 - 8:15 am ET
August 28 - 8:15 am ET
August 27 - 8:15 am ET
August 26 - 8:20 am ET
August 25 - 8:20 am ET

August 22 - 8:20 am ET
August 21 - 8:20 am ET
August 20 - 8:20 am ET
August 19 - 8:20 am ET
August 18 - 8:15 am ET

August 15 - 8:20 am ET
August 14 - 8:20 am ET
August 13 - 8:20 am ET
August 12 - 8:15 am ET
August 11 - 8:15 am ET

August 8 - 8:20 am ET
August 7 - 8:20 am ET
August 6 - 8:15 am ET
August 5 - 8:15 am ET
August 4 - 8:15 am ET

August 1 - 8:30 am ET

JULY

July 31 - 8:15 am ET
July 30 - 8:15 am ET
July 29 - 8:20 am ET
July 28 - 8:15 am ET

July 25 - 8:15 am ET
July 24 - 8:15 am ET
July 23 - 8:15 am ET
July 22 - 8:30 am ET
July 21 - 8:15 am ET

July 18 - 8:20 am ET
July 17 - 8:15 am ET
July 16 - 8:15 am ET
July 15 - 8:15 am ET
July 14 - 8:20 am ET

July 11 - 8:15 am ET
July 10 - 8:15 am ET
July 9 - 8:10 am ET
July 8 - 8:20 am ET
July 7 - 8:20 am ET

July 3 - 8:15 am ET
July 2 - 8:20 am ET
July 1 - 8:20 am ET


JUNE

June 30 - 8:15 am ET

June 27 - 8:30 am ET
June 26 - 8:30 am ET
June 25 - 8:20 am ET
June 24 - 8:20 am ET
June 23 - 8:10 am ET

June 20 - 8:20 am ET
June 19 - 8:15 am ET
June 18 - 8:15 am ET
June 17 - 8:30 am ET
June 16 - 8:30 am ET

June 13 - 8:30 am ET
June 12 - 8:30 am ET
June 11 - 8:20 am ET
June 10 - 8:15 am ET
June 9 - 8:00 am ET

June 6 - 8:10 am ET
June 5 - 8:00 am ET
June 4 - 8:20 am ET
June 3 - 8:00 am ET
June 2 - 8:00 am ET

MAY

May 30 - 8:00 am ET
May 29 - 8:00 am ET
May 28 - 8:00 am ET
May 27 - 8:00 am ET

May 23 - 8:00 am ET
May 22 - 8:00 am ET
May 21 - 8:00 am ET
May 20 - 8:00 am ET
May 19 - 8:00 am ET

May 16 - 8:00 am ET
May 15 - 8:00 am ET
May 14 - 8:00 am ET
May 13 - 8:00 am ET
May 12 - 8:00 am ET

May 9 - 8:00 am ET
May 8 - 8:00 am ET
May 7 - 8:00 am ET
May 6 - 8:00 am ET
May 5 - 8:00 am ET

May 2 - 8:00 am ET
May 1 - 8:00 am ET

APRIL

April 30 - 8:00 am ET
April 29 - 7:30 am ET
April 28 - 8:00 am ET

April 25 - 8:00 am ET
April 24 - 8:00 am ET
April 23 - 8:00 am ET
April 22 - 8:00 am ET
April 21 - 8:00 am ET

April 18 - 8:00 am ET
April 17 - 8:00 am ET
April 16 - 8:00 am ET
April 15 - 8:00 am ET
April 14 - 8:00 am ET

April 11 - 8:00 am ET
April 10 - 8:00 am ET
April 9 - 8:00 am ET
April 8 - 8:00 am ET
April 7 - 8:00 am ET

April 4 - 8:15 am ET
April 3 - 8:00 am ET
April 2 - 8:15 am ET
April 1 - 8:20 am ET

MARCH

March 31 - 8:10 am ET

March 28 - 8:00 am ET
March 27 - 8:00 am ET
March 26 - 8:00 am ET
March 25 - 8:05 am ET
March 24 - 8:00 am ET

March 20 - 8:00 am ET
March 19 - 8:00 am ET
March 18 - 8:00 am ET
March 17 - 8:00 am ET

March 14 - 8:30 am ET
March 13 - 8:15 am ET
March 12 - 8:05 am ET
March 11 - 8:20 am ET
March 10 - 8:15 am ET

March 7 - 8:35 am ET
March 6 - 8:20 am ET
March 5 - 8:20 am ET
March 4 - 8:20 am ET
March 3 - 8:25 am ET

FEBRUARY

February 29 - 8:50 am ET
February 28 - 8:40 am ET
February 27 - 8:30 am ET
February 26 - 8:20 am ET
February 25 - 8:20 am ET

February 22 - 8:30 am ET
February 21 - 9:40 am ET
February 20 - 8:35 am ET
February 19 - 8:35 am ET

February 15 - 8:35 am ET
February 14 - 8:45 am ET
February 13 - 8:30 am ET
February 12 - 8:30 am ET
February 11 - 8:40 am ET

February 8 - 8:20 am ET
February 7 - 8:25 am ET
February 6 - 10:30 am ET
February 5 - 8:40 am ET
February 4 - 8:40 am ET

February 1 - 8:30 am ET

JANUARY

January 31
- 8:30 am ET
January 30 - 8:20 am ET
January 29 - 8:25 am ET
January 28 - 8:45 am ET

January 25 - 8:30 am ET
January 24 - 8:35 am ET
January 23 - 8:35 am ET
January 22 - 8:40 am ET

January 18 - 8:20 am ET
January 17 - 8:20 am ET
January 16 - 9:00 am ET
January 15 - 9:05 am ET
January 14 - 8:35 am ET

January 11 - 8:30 am ET
January 10 - 8:35 am ET
January 9 - 8:35 am ET
January 8 - 8:40 am ET
January 7 - 8:45 am ET

January 4 - 8:30 am ET
January 3 - 8:30 am ET
January 2 - 8:30 am ET

Monday, December 31, 2007

Guesstimates on December 31, 8:40 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I am long from 1486 and using a 1461 stop. I think the next significant move from here will be upward to the next short term target at 1550. I think we shall see the futures trace above the 1600 level during the first quarter of 2008.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 54.20 and eventually to the 60 level.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-16. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. Resistance above the market is at 148.20.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 111.00.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Crude has reached 96.50 resistance and the downtrend should now resume. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. The current rally should halt at a lower top near the 1570 level.

Google: GOOG is headed for 760.

Friday, December 28, 2007

Guesstimates on December 28, 8:40 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I am long from 1486 and using a 1461 stop. Despite the overnight rally to 1503 I still think the market has a shot at 1480 or so before it turns upward and moves above 1511. Even so I am going to maintain my position because there is too much uncertainty associated with any projected drop to 1480. Next upside target is 1550 and I think we shall see the futures trace above the 1600 level during the first quarter of 2008.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 54.20 and eventually to the 60 level.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 115-08. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-04. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 112.00.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Crude has reached 96.50 resistance and the downtrend should now resume. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. The current rally should halt at a lower top near the 1570 level.

Google: GOOG is headed for 760.

Thursday, December 27, 2007

E-mimi Update

I just put in orders to buy the March e-minis at 1486 using a 1461 stop.

Guesstimates on December 27, 8:36 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Last Friday’s price action completed a well formed and very unusual “island” reversal in the e-minis using only regular hours trading data. I think this means that the 1446 low last week ended the drop from 1537 in the March contract. Support beneath the market is at 1480-45. I think the market has begun a move to 1600 and above. I plan to be a buyer near support in the 1480-85 zone but I’ll let you know when I put in my orders.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 54.20 and eventually to the 60 level.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-24. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Crude has reached 96.50 resistance and the downtrend should now resume. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. The current rally should halt at a lower top near the 1570 level.

Google: GOOG is headed for 760.

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Guesstimates on December 26, 8:35 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Last Friday’s price action completed a well formed and very unusual “island” reversal in the e-minis using only regular hours trading data. I think this means that the 1446 low last week ended the drop from 1537 in the March contract. Support beneath the market is at 1480-45. I think the market has begun a move to 1600 and above. I plan to be a buyer near support in the 1480-85 zone but I’ll let you know when I put in my orders.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 54.20 and eventually to the 60 level.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-24. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG is headed for 760.

Monday, December 24, 2007

Guesstimates on December 24, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Friday’s price action completed a well formed and very unusual “island” reversal in the e-minis using only regular hours trading data. I think this means that the 1446 low last week ended the drop from 1537 in the March contract. I think the market has begun a move to 1600 and above. I plan to be a buyer near support in the 1480-85 zone but I’ll let you know when I put in my orders.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 54.20 and eventually to the 60 level.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-24. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG is headed for 760.

Friday, December 21, 2007

Guesstimates on December 21, 8:40 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis are trading above 1480 resistance. My downside target is still 1395 but whatever high the market makes today will be my “line in the sand”. Higher highs next week will mean that we have already seen the low of the drop from the 1537 high of December 11. In any case I think most of the first quarter of 2008 will be very bullish and that the e-minis will trade above 1600 during that time.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.00. Resistance is 51.10.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-24. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG has support at 640.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Guesstimates on December 20, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis should continue upward to1480 or so. From there I think we shall see the start of another leg downward. I still think the market is headed below the November 26 low at 1418 in the March e-minis.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.00.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-24. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG has support at 640.

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Guesstimates on December 19, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis rallied from the 1445 level and should continue upward to1480 or so. From there I think we shall see the start of another leg downward. I still think the market is headed below the November 26 low at 1418 in the March e-minis.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.00.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-12. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG has support at 640.

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Guesstimates on December 18, 8:35 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Stopped out of the March contract yesterday at 1457. It now looks like the market is headed below the November 26 low at 1418 in the March e-minis. Meantime resistance above the market is at 1479.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.00.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 115-00. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-00. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG has support is now at 640.

Monday, December 17, 2007

E-mini and Spiders Update

Here is an hourly chart showing regular hours trading in the e-minis. My long position was stopped out today at 1457.

The fact that the market closed well below last week's low is a bearish development coming as it does after the lower top at 1537 ( 152.87 in the Spiders). At this juncture I think this means that the market is headed down below its late November low at 1418 in the e-minis and 140.60 in the Spiders. Right now I think that the 1395 level in the e-minis and 138.50 in the Spiders looks likely.

Earlier today I pointed out the bullish divergence between the 5 day moving average of the advancing issues count and the daily readings. I think this divergence will give us a small, 25 point bounce from the 1440-45 range but that a much more important divergence between the market and the 5 day moving average will be seen before the drop from the December 11 top ends.

Advancing Issues

Here is a line chart of the number of issues traded on the New York Stock Exchange which advance in price. The purple line is the 5 day moving average of this number. I last commented on this indicator here.

It is my view that the drop which began after the Fed announced its latest rate cut is a normal reaction within an uptrend that began from the low on November 27 at 1417 in the March '08 e-mini contract and 1406 in the cash S&P. The advancing issues chart you see above shows that the market has moved down to an oversold condition roughly as deep as those in early and late November. Moreover, you can see that the daily numbers are making a low higher than the one made earlier on the way down from the December 11 high.

I think this indicator is telling us that the reaction is about over and that the market will soon resume its rally. I expect the e-minis to trade over the 1600 level sometime in January or February.

Guesstimates on December 17, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Long the March contract from 1482.50 (adjusted for the switch from December) and working a 1457 stop. Upside target is 1555. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 50.75.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 115-00. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-00. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

Friday, December 14, 2007

Guesstimates on December 14, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Long the March contract from 1482.50 (adjusted for the switch from December) and working a 1457 stop. Upside target is 1555. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 50.75.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-28. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 114-08. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

Thursday, December 13, 2007

E-mini Update

I sold December e-minis at 1481.50 and bought March at 1492. Now working a 1457 stop in the March contract.

Guesstimates on December 13, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Long the December contract at 1472 and working a 1447 stop. Once regular hours trading starts I am going to sell the Decembers and buy the March contract. Then I will cancel the 1447 stop in Decembers and start working a 1457 stop in March. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 50.75.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-28. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 114-08. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

E-mini Update

A few minutes ago I was filled at 1472 and am now long the December e-minis with a stop at 1447.

Tomorrow the March '08 contract will become the most active contract. So soon after regular hours trading starts I shall sell my December contracts and simultaneously buy the same number of March contracts. March is trading about 10 points over December so after I make this switch my stop will then be at 1457 in the March contract.

Guesstimates on December 12, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Today I shall be a buyer at 1472 using a 25 point stop. Resistance above the market is at 1495. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 50.75.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-28. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 114-08. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance stands at 92.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Guesstimates on December 11, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Resistance is still at 1520 and the next break will probably carry the market down 25 points or so. Last week’s 1406 low ended the decline from the October 11 top at 1587. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - March Bonds: 114-08 is the next downside target. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

March 10 Year Notes: I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance stands at 92.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

Monday, December 10, 2007

Guesstimates on December 10, 8:45 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: I want to be a buyer after a down day so today I shall be on the sidelines. Resistance above the market is at 1520 and the next break will probably carry the market down 25 points or so. Last week’s 1406 low ended the decline from the October 11 top at 1587. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and 114-08 is the next downside target. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 114-12. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. The 146.50 support level was broken so I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance stands at 92.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

Friday, December 07, 2007

Guesstimates on December 7, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: I want to be a buyer after a down day so today I shall be on the sidelines. Resistance above the market is at 1520 and the next break will probably carry the market down 25 points or so. Last week’s 1406 low ended the decline from the October 11 top at 1587. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and 114-08 is the next downside target. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 114-12. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. The 146.50 support level was broken yesterday so I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance stands at 92.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

Thursday, December 06, 2007

E-mini update

I just sold my e-mini long position at 1493. The market is stalling near its previous top after two up days so I think another reaction of 20-30 points is likely, starting here or perhaps near my original 1503 target. In any case I shall be a buyer again on the next reaction.

Guesstimates on December 6, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Long the e-minis from 1463. Today I am working a stop at 1472 and plan to sell longs at 1503 if that level is hit today. Last week’s 1406 low ended the decline from the October 11 top at 1587. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. Next downside target is 115-16. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 114-12. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. The 146.50 support level was broken yesterday so I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market broke support at 87.00 yesterday and so I think it is headed for 79.50 before a 5-10 dollar rally can start. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.