kishore, i did not say crash is certainty..only probable. Just like there is a high probabilty of at least another leg down if not market peak... R/R kishore. And carl knows it very much.
Want to make a quick comment about the dollar. Geitner, Summers and Bernake are all saying that there is a need for a STRONGER dollar... I think the central banks meet this weekend and could they perhaps do an emergency rate hike over the weekend? Just a word of caution out here about the dollar and how it would affect the markets!
Emergency rate hike? You've got to be kidding me. No chance! Fed funds isn't predicting a rate hike until next March at the earliest. As far as bank earnings go, i suspect they will be decent. Trading profits have to be good with the market runup and the refi business is booming.
You really need to do some homework. Every Treasury Secretary for the last several Administration's has talked "tough" about wanting a "strong" Dollar. But it is just that . . . TALK.
The Bernanke "game-plan" is to re-inflate and keep interest rates as low as possible for as LONG AS POSSIBLE.
Hence, the big move up in energy, coal, steel, nat-gas, drilling, and other basic material and cyclical names this year.
I know lots of folks don't give a lot of credence to EW, but it does look like the dollar could have completed of a 5 wave move down at 75.91. (Of course, there are always alternate counts in EW, so an alternate count is expecting one more move down to around 74.50.)
Once this 5 wave move down is complete, we should be in for a multi-month move up which should take the dollar to at least 81 or 82 and very likely much higher.
I have been tracking GE with the SPX from this move up and they have been holding hands together... The last couple sessions they have gone in opposite direction!
Well, if you think that the recovery is for real and we are in a V recovery, then GDP will start to grow at 3% or more which would give the FED reason to hike rates!
Don't forget that the market usually leads 6-9mths of what the economy will do, so if this BULL is for real, i see a V recovery in the economy and a rate hike soon!
17 comments:
market will be in tight range perhaps 1065-1059 today..i am not initiating any position today
andi, are you going to risk missing the crash?
Carl,
You have a mid-day update on todays action and overall market condition... pretty slow day, but looking to go long around ur entry!
Thx
kishore, i did not say crash is certainty..only probable.
Just like there is a high probabilty of at least another leg down if not market peak...
R/R kishore. And carl knows it very much.
Watch Earnings: 10/12 GS 10/14 C and JPM 10/15 BAC. If they report well then your shorts are going to get killed...... I would be careful
Thanks
Joseph
I am joining you by going long at 1062.25, which was posted in real time at:
http://obamagirl7.blogspot.com/2009/10/market-thoughts-for-oct-9.html#comment-19681817
Want to make a quick comment about the dollar. Geitner, Summers and Bernake are all saying that there is a need for a STRONGER dollar... I think the central banks meet this weekend and could they perhaps do an emergency rate hike over the weekend? Just a word of caution out here about the dollar and how it would affect the markets!
any thoughts?
Thanks
Emergency rate hike? You've got to be kidding me. No chance! Fed funds isn't predicting a rate hike until next March at the earliest. As far as bank earnings go, i suspect they will be decent. Trading profits have to be good with the market runup and the refi business is booming.
You guys are awaking my contrarian bear.
Extrader -
You really need to do some homework. Every Treasury Secretary for the last several Administration's has talked "tough" about wanting a "strong" Dollar. But it is just that . . . TALK.
The Bernanke "game-plan" is to re-inflate and keep interest rates as low as possible for as LONG AS POSSIBLE.
Hence, the big move up in energy, coal, steel, nat-gas, drilling, and other basic material and cyclical names this year.
Emergency rate hike?
To do what?
Send the unemployment rate over 10%???
Doesn't make any sense.
I know lots of folks don't give a lot of credence to EW, but it does look like the dollar could have completed of a 5 wave move down at 75.91. (Of course, there are always alternate counts in EW, so an alternate count is expecting one more move down to around 74.50.)
Once this 5 wave move down is complete, we should be in for a multi-month move up which should take the dollar to at least 81 or 82 and very likely much higher.
TRADE ALERT: Out of /ES long at 1066.50; +4.25. Was impressed with how IBM and INTC traded today.
Rate hike is the most ridiculous idea I have heard recently.
Caution:
I have been tracking GE with the SPX from this move up and they have been holding hands together... The last couple sessions they have gone in opposite direction!
Well, if you think that the recovery is for real and we are in a V recovery, then GDP will start to grow at 3% or more which would give the FED reason to hike rates!
Don't forget that the market usually leads 6-9mths of what the economy will do, so if this BULL is for real, i see a V recovery in the economy and a rate hike soon!
1070 SPX looks pretty tough to get over! Lets see if we can hurdle it next week...
back after playing golf..as i had posted, a narrow range day and i didnot want to waste my time..
It is negative that market couldn't reach year high, today was a great excuse to do it..
As a IT bear, i am encouraged. Market sure looks like it is in the topping process..
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